Target PCA: Transfer Learning Large Dimensional Panel Data
目标 PCA:大维面板数据的迁移学习AI 解读 ↓
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目标 PCA:大维面板数据的迁移学习AI 解读 ↓
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This paper develops a novel method to estimate a latent factor model for a large target panel with missing observations by optimally using the information from auxiliary panel data sets. We refer to our estimator as target-PCA. Transfer learning from auxiliary panel data allows us to deal with a large fraction of missing observations and weak signals in the target panel. We show that our estimator is more efficient and can consistently estimate weak factors, which are not identifiable with conventional methods. We provide the asymptotic inferential theory for target-PCA under very general assumptions on the approximate factor model and missing patterns. In an empirical study of imputing data in a mixed-frequency macroeconomic panel, we demonstrate that target-PCA significantly outperforms all benchmark methods.
目标主成分分析:高维面板数据的迁移学习
This paper develops a novel method to estimate a latent factor model for a large target panel with missing observations by optimally using the information from auxiliary panel data sets. We refer to our estimator as target-PCA. Transfer learning from auxiliary panel data allows us to deal with a large fraction of missing observations and weak signals in the target panel. We show that our estimator is more efficient and can consistently estimate weak factors, which are not…
因子成分与特异成分的经验过程
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条件线性的矩阵正态状态空间模型
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利用多国非参数分位数因子模型研究增长风险
We develop a nonparametric quantile panel regression model.Within each quantile, the quantile function is a combination of linear and nonlinear parts, which we approximate using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART).Cross-sectional information is captured through a conditionally heteroscedastic latent factor.The nonparametric feature enhances flexibility, while the panel feature increases the number of observations in the tails.We develop Bayesian methods for inference…
用多国非参数分位数因子模型研究增长风险
We develop a Bayesian non-parametric quantile panel regression model. Within each quantile, the response function is a convex combination of a linear model and a non-linear function, which we approximate using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). Cross-sectional information at the pth quantile is captured through a conditionally heteroscedastic latent factor. The non-parametric feature of our model enhances flexibility, while the panel feature, by exploiting…
利用采购经理指数预测产出增长的多国方法
This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence of strong unobserved common factors can lead to an undetermined GVAR model. To solve this problem, we propose augmenting the GVAR with additional proxy equations for the strong factors and establish conditions under which forecasts from the augmented GVAR model (AugGVAR) uniformly converge in probability (as the panel dimensions N,T→j∞) to the infeasible…