Gradient flows for empirical Bayes in high-dimensional linear models
高维线性模型经验贝叶斯的梯度流方法AI 解读 ↓
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高维线性模型经验贝叶斯的梯度流方法AI 解读 ↓
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Empirical Bayes provides a powerful framework for learning and adapting to latent structure in data. In sequence models where an independent observation is associated to each latent parameter, theory and methods around empirical Bayes are well-developed. However, in models where latent parameters and observed data interact through more complex designs, many statistical and algorithmic questions remain unanswered. In this work, we study a canonical setting of empirical Bayes estimation for the distribution of regression coefficients in a high-dimensional Bayesian or random effects linear model. Computationally, we propose a new system of gradient flow equations for computing a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE), which jointly optimizes over the prior and posterior distributions of the regression coefficients in a Gibbs variational representation of the marginal log-likelihood. A diffusion-based implementation yields an adaptive Langevin dynamics algorithm in which the prior evolves continuously to optimize a sequence model log-likelihood defined by the coordinates of the Langevin sample. Theoretically, we show polynomial-time convergence of the proposed gradient flow to a near-NPMLE from any initialization within a convex sub-level set of the marginal log-likelihood, by developing a high-temperature log-Sobolev inequality for the posterior law. We establish the statistical consistency of any near-NPMLE under deterministic conditions for the regression design as $n,p\rightarrow\infty$.
RBF 核高斯过程最大似然估计的精确渐近理论
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the…
借助多项式逼近建立高斯经验贝叶斯的尖锐遗憾界
A central problem in the theory of empirical Bayes is to control the regret (excess risk) of a learned Bayes rule by the Hellinger distance between the estimated and true marginal densities. In the normal means model, the classical result of Jiang and Zhang (2009) achieves this only after regularizing the Bayes rule and incurs an extraneous cubic logarithmic factor through a delicate recursive argument. This paper introduces a new technique, based on polynomial approximation…
高维线性回归经验贝叶斯估计的均值场方法
We study empirical Bayes estimation in high-dimensional linear regression. To facilitate computationally efficient estimation of the underlying prior, we adopt a variational empirical Bayes approach, introduced originally in Carbonetto and Stephens (2012) and Kim et al. (2022). We establish asymptotic consistency of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) and its (computable) naive mean field variational surrogate under mild assumptions on the design and the…
XMSE 感知的自适应经验贝叶斯估计
Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators can match the first-order asymptotic risk of maximum likelihood (ML) while behaving very differently at second order: recent excess mean squared error (XMSE) analysis shows that kernel-based EB estimation may be worse than ML when the kernel is poorly aligned with the true parameter. This paper turns that diagnostic into a design principle. We propose an XMSE-aware mixed estimator that interpolates between ML and EB shrinkage. Its fixed-weight…
贝叶斯非参数准似然
A recent trend in Bayesian research has been revisiting generalizations of the likelihood that enable Bayesian inference without requiring the specification of a data generating mechanism. This article focuses on a Bayesian nonparametric extension of Wedderburn’s quasi-likelihood, using Bayesian additive regression trees to model the mean function. Here, the analyst posits only a structural relationship between the mean and variance of the outcome. We show that this approach…
泊松经验贝叶斯估计:何时先验建模优于边际建模?
Empirical Bayes (EB) is a popular framework for large-scale inference that aims to find data-driven estimators to compete with the Bayesian oracle that knows the true prior. Two principled approaches to EB estimation have emerged over the years: f-modeling, which constructs an approximate Bayes rule by estimating the marginal distribution of the data, and g-modeling, which estimates the prior from data and then applies the learned Bayes rule. For the Poisson model, the…