Empirical Bayes Estimation of a Distribution (Survival) Function from Right Censored Observations
右删失观测下分布与生存函数的经验贝叶斯估计AI 解读 ↓
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右删失观测下分布与生存函数的经验贝叶斯估计AI 解读 ↓
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This paper provides an empirical Bayes approach to the problem of nonparametric estimation of a distribution (or survival) function when the observations are censored on the right. The results use the notion of a Dirichlet process prior introduced by Ferguson. The paper presents a generalization to the case of right censored observations of the rate result of an empirical Bayes nonparametric estimator of a distribution function of Korwar and Hollander in the uncensored case. The rate of asymptotic convergence of optimality is shown to be the best obtainable for the problem considered.
处理是否有益?有序结局因果推断的贝叶斯方法
Randomized experiments with ordinal outcomes are common across scientific applications, but conventional causal estimands such as the average treatment effect are difficult to interpret because ordinal categories lack meaningful numerical spacing. Two interpretable estimands, the probabilities that the treatment is beneficial and strictly beneficial, depend on the joint distribution of the potential outcomes and are therefore not identifiable from observed data. The sharp…
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In spatial observational studies, treatment assignment and outcomes often exhibit spatial dependence patterns, and treatment effects may vary across space and subpopulations due to both measured and unmeasured spatially structured confounders. Accounting for spatial dependence while estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) is a central task in spatial causal inference. Causal Bayesian additive regression tree methods are popular nonparametric methods for modeling…
自助集成鞅后验:预测重采样的不确定性校准
Martingale posteriors and related predictive resampling methods replace the likelihood--prior pair used within Bayesian inference with a predictive model for future observations. These methods are simple to implement and increasingly popular due to their computational efficiency, but little is known about their ability to accurately quantify uncertainty. In this work, we study the concentration and calibration properties of the martingale posterior for general functionals,…
利用 SIMEX 估计真实效应量分布
Large-scale online experimentation produces noisy effect estimates, which can overstate gains and complicate decisions about launches and testing policies. We propose a nonparametric method based on SIMulation-EXtrapolation (SIMEX) to estimate the latent distribution of true effects from estimated average treatment effects with known variances. The method evaluates quantiles after adding progressively more simulated measurement noise and extrapolates the resulting inverse…
用 BAND 缓解维度灾难:高维非参数分布估计
Minimax-optimal rates for multivariate distribution estimation are known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We propose a sparse Bayesian network approach in which each conditional probability is estimated using sparsity-aware conditional mean methods. The resulting estimator, \textit{BAyesian Network Distribution regression} (BAND), handles mixed data types in high-dimensional time series and achieves polynomial total variation convergence rates while allowing the…
剩余生存时间分位数的贝叶斯非参数因果推断:阿尔茨海默病应用
In Alzheimer's disease research, a clinically important question is how much longer individuals would remain dementia-free beyond a given time under different baseline amyloid statuses. We address this question using observational data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) treating baseline amyloid status as the exposure. Estimation is challenging because amyloid status is confounded, time to dementia onset is heterogeneous and heavily right censored,…