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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要研究总体排名的不确定性;提及金融机构和风险调整不足以归入金融尾部风险方向。

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关注这篇论文的作者
Minge Xie
Kesar Singh
Cun-Hui Zhang

存在并列与近似并列时总体排名的置信区间

研究问题
当不同总体的表现难以区分,存在未知并列或近似并列时,如何为其总体排名构造具有可靠频率覆盖的置信界?
方法与思路
作者引入修正总体排名,构造排名参数的置信界与非标准自助推断,发展允许并列及近似并列的频率学理论。
材料陈述的贡献
摘要称建立排名推断的理论依据,并用模拟和退伍军人医疗机构数据展示方法,还将结果扩展到一般风险调整模型。
阅读关注点
核对修正排名与通常排名的区别、近似并列的渐近设置,以及覆盖保证是逐个还是联合,并查看风险调整误差的处理。
阅读边界
所据为版本未注明的索引摘要;摘要未说明置信界构造、覆盖条件或区间宽度,不能据此判断具体机构排名的可靠性。

原文摘要

Frequentist confidence intervals for population ranks and their statistical justifications are not well established, even though there is a great need for such procedures in practice. How do we assign confidence bounds for the ranks of health care facilities, schools, and financial institutions based on data that do not clearly separate the performance of different entities apart? The commonly used bootstrap-based frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian intervals for population ranks may not achieve the intended coverage probability in the frequentist sense, especially in the presence of unknown ties or “near ties” among the populations to be ranked. Given random samples from k populations, we propose confidence bounds for population ranking parameters and develop rigorous frequentist theory and nonstandard bootstrap inference for population ranks, which allow ties and near ties. In the process, a notion of modified population rank is introduced that appears quite suitable for dealing with the population ranking problem. The proposed methodology and theoretical results are illustrated through simulations and a real dataset from a health research study involving 79 Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities. The results are extended to general risk adjustment models.

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