Tracking the Impact of Media on Voter Choice in Real Time: A Bayesian Dynamic Joint Model
实时追踪媒体对选民选择的影响：贝叶斯动态联合模型AI 解读 ↓
← 返回论文列表与筛选
阅读说明
本页整理公开书目信息，不生成学术质量评分。AI 解读根据题名及所注明的摘要或原文片段生成，未完成全文核验，可能有误；具体假设、证明与结论请核对原文。摘要保留来源文本，未经模型改写。
DOI 首次登记不等于接收或发表日期。部分更正、评论等条目没有独立摘要；缺少可靠材料时保留待补状态。
引用量采用 OpenAlex 单条关联记录，不合计多个记录；关联记录可能包含正式发表版本，不等于此版本单独引用。缺失不视为零，引用指标不代表论文质量。
关注作者按书目中的完整姓名匹配，同名和姓名变体需人工辨别。相关论文先按共享细分方向和具体方法排列，再参考通用方法与发表日期。
分类依据与纠错
AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类：摘要明确采用动态多项选择模型联合分析投票意向与实际投票，直接对应离散选择。
反馈分类问题
正在核对关联版本…
代码、数据与补充材料
正在核对对应版本的资源…
实时追踪媒体对选民选择的影响：贝叶斯动态联合模型
- 研究问题
- 如何实时记录媒体接触，并联合描述选民意向、最终投票及接触异质性的动态关系，减少回忆偏差带来的测量困难？
- 方法与思路
- 作者使用手机短信实时体验追踪数据，构建贝叶斯零膨胀动态多项选择模型，应用于英国2010年大选的三党选择情境。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称付费与赢得媒体的影响随时间不同且存在协同作用；接触评价方向很重要，临近投票时仍与最终选择有关。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对接触测量、零膨胀与动态结构的设定，以及媒体接触内生性如何处理、意向与实际投票结果如何区分。
- 阅读边界
- 仅据 OpenAlex 索引摘要，稿件版本未注明；摘要未说明因果识别条件，不能将模型中的媒体影响直接视为因果效应。
原文摘要
Commonly used methods of evaluating the impact of marketing communications during political elections struggle to account for respondents’ exposures to these communications due to the problems associated with recall bias. In addition, they completely fail to account for the impact of mediated or earned communications, such as newspaper articles or television news, that are typically not within the control of the advertising party, nor are they effectively able to monitor consumers’ perceptual responses over time. This study based on a new data collection technique using cell-phone text messaging (called real-time experience tracking or RET) offers the potential to address these weaknesses. We propose an RET-based model of the impact of communications and apply it to a unique choice situation: voting behavior during the 2010 UK general election, which was dominated by three political parties. We develop a Bayesian zero-inflated dynamic multinomial choice model that enables the joint modeling of: the interplay and dynamics associated with the individual voter's choice intentions over time, actual vote, and the heterogeneity in the exposure to marketing communications over time. Results reveal the differential impact over time of paid and earned media, demonstrate a synergy between the two, and show the particular importance of exposure valence and not just frequency, contrary to the predominant practitioner emphasis on share-of-voice metrics. Results also suggest that while earned media have a reducing impact on voting intentions as the final choice approaches, their valence continues to influence the final vote: a difference between drivers of intentions and behavior that implies that exposure valence remains critically important close to the final brand choice. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.