Regression Discontinuity Designs
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The Regression Discontinuity (RD) design is one of the most widely used non-experimental methods for causal inference and program evaluation. Over the last two decades, statistical and econometric methods for RD analysis have expanded and matured, and there is now a large number of methodological results for RD identification, estimation, inference, and validation. We offer a curated review of this methodological literature organized around the two most popular frameworks for the analysis and interpretation of RD designs: the continuity framework and the local randomization framework. For each framework, we discuss three main topics: (i) designs and parameters, which focuses on different types of RD settings and treatment effects of interest; (ii) estimation and inference, which presents the most popular methods based on local polynomial regression and analysis of experiments, as well as refinements, extensions, and alternatives; and (iii) validation and falsification, which summarizes an array of mostly empirical approaches to support the validity of RD designs in practice.
尖锐回归折点设计中局部处理效应识别与推断的统一框架
This paper develops a unified framework for the identification, estimation, and uniform inference of local treatment effects (LTEs) in sharp regression kink designs (RKDs). These LTEs quantify the effect of a marginal change in the treatment at the kink point on various features of the outcome distribution. The identification strategy applies to Hadamard-differentiable functionals of the outcome distribution -- including means, quantiles, and inequality measures -- and…
回归不连续设计中的说服效应
We develop a framework for identifying and estimating persuasion effects in regression discontinuity (RD) designs. The RD persuasion rate measures the probability that individuals at the threshold would take the action if exposed to a persuasive message, given that they would not take the action without exposure. We present identification results for both sharp and fuzzy RD designs, derive sharp bounds under various data scenarios, and extend the analysis to local compliers.…
动态断点回归:事件研究方法
I propose a novel argument to identify economically interpretable intertemporal treatment effects in dynamic regression discontinuity designs (RDDs). Specifically, I develop a dynamic potential outcomes model and reformulate two assumptions from the difference-in-differences literature, no anticipation and common trends, to attain point identification of cutoff-specific impulse responses. The estimand of each target parameter can be expressed as the sum of two static RDD…
利用多期数据修正失效的回归不连续设计
Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs rely on the continuity of potential outcome means at the cutoff, but this assumption often fails when other treatments or policies are implemented at this cutoff. We characterize the bias in sharp and fuzzy RD designs due to violations of continuity, and develop a general identification framework that leverages multiple time periods to estimate local effects on the (un)treated. We extend the framework to settings with carry-over effects…
回归不连续设计的半参数推断
Treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) are often estimated using local regression methods. \cite{Hahn:01} demonstrated that the identification of the average treatment effect at the cutoff in RDDs relies on the unconfoundedness assumption and that, without this assumption, only the local average treatment effect at the cutoff can be identified. In this paper, we propose a semiparametric framework tailored for identifying the average treatment effect in…
The editors1 of The Econometrics Journal decided to award the 2023 Denis Sargan Econometrics Prize to Alexander Kreiss (Leizpig University) for his article “Inference in regression discontinuity designs with high-dimensional covariates” with Christoph Rothe in the May 2023 issue of The Econometrics Journal.2 The regression-discontinuity approach can be used to learn about the causal effects of a binary treatment (e.g. enrolment in an educational program) that is fully…