Local Projection Inference in High Dimensions
高维环境下的局部投影推断AI 解读 ↓
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In this paper, we estimate impulse responses by local projections in high-dimensional settings. We use the desparsified (de-biased) lasso to estimate the high-dimensional local projections, while leaving the impulse response parameter of interest unpenalized. We establish the uniform asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator under general conditions. Finally, we demonstrate small sample performance through a simulation study and consider two canonical applications in macroeconomic research on monetary policy and government spending.
时变向量自回归的模型平均
This paper proposes a novel time-varying model averaging (TVMA) approach to enhancing forecast accuracy for multivariate time series subject to structural changes. The TVMA method averages predictions from a set of time-varying vector autoregressive models using optimal time-varying combination weights selected by minimizing a penalized local criterion. This allows the relative importance of different models to adaptively evolve over time in response to structural shifts. We…
Summary We adapt double machine learning to macroeconomic time series by combining regularized nuisance estimation with reverse cross-fitting. This deterministic scheme exploits time reversibility to use time-reversed auxiliary blocks and, unlike neighbour-deletion designs, avoids buffer blocks, thereby improving sample usage. We derive conditions for asymptotic validity and show in simulations that the estimator performs well in realistic finite samples across the designs…
多层网络向量自回归的时变模型平均
In this paper, we introduce a flexible time-varying multi-layer network vector autoregression (VAR) model framework for large-scale time series, allowing agents in dynamic systems to interact through multiple channels and incorporating multiple adjacency matrices to capture network spillover effects. We propose a penalized model averaging method to determine a time-varying optimal combination of multi-layer network VAR candidate models whose number may be divergent. Under…
准贝叶斯局部投影工具变量法:可再生能源与电价应用
This paper introduces a quasi-Bayesian approach for local projection instrumental-variables (LP-IV) estimation. It builds a moment-based quasi-posterior using the generalized method of moments (GMM) objective and applies a roughness-penalty prior to smooth impulse responses over different horizons. The approach maintains the key first-order features of traditional LP-IV methods, while enhancing stability in finite samples and allowing for joint inference through simultaneous…
Summary This paper proposes the Regularized Generalized Covariance (RGCov) estimator, a ridge-type extension of the Generalized Covariance (GCov) estimator for high-dimensional stationary time series. By regularizing the GCov objective function, which involves the inverse of the covariance matrix, RGCov improves numerical stability while preserving positive definiteness. Under suitable conditions, the new estimator is consistent, asymptotically normal, and…
稀疏 VAR 不意味着稀疏局部投影:高维 Granger 因果的稳健推断
This paper studies multi-horizon Granger causality using high-dimensional local projections in sparse Vector Autoregressive (VAR) systems. Since local projection coefficients are nonlinear transformations of the underlying VAR parameters, existing approaches, such as de-biased least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and post-double-selection methods applied directly to local projections, lack a general justification, as sparsity of the VAR does not always…