Panel Conditioning in Fixed-Effects Models: Identification and Bias Propagation
固定效应模型中的调查参与效应：识别与偏差传递AI 解读 ↓
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固定效应模型中的调查参与效应：识别与偏差传递
- 研究问题
- 既往参与调查对回答的影响随参与时长变化时，错位入组面板能识别路径的哪些部分，这些识别限制又如何传递到固定效应和事件研究估计？
- 方法与思路
- 作者在时期、入组队列与参与时长的加性单元均值模型中，用设计矩阵核空间刻画识别集合，并推导调查参与效应向回归偏差的传递。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称刻画了仿射及周期性未识别方向，给出额外恢复条件，并说明双向固定效应中的剩余偏差可识别且不依赖归一化。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对观测支持、队列步长与连通性条件，区分访谈次数和日历时间效应，并检查参与时长指标校正所需的残余秩条件。
- 阅读边界
- 这是 arXiv 预印本，同行评审与期刊接收未核实；摘要未展开各支持条件和数值结果，且明确 CPS 指数例子仅具描述性，不能作为识别证据。
原文摘要
Panel conditioning, the causal effect of prior survey participation on responses, can vary with tenure. Under an additive model of cell means in period, entry cohort, and tenure, we characterize which features of the conditioning path a staggered panel identifies on its observed support, and how the unidentified component affects common panel estimators. The identified set of the path is an affine translate of the tenure projection of the cell design's kernel, and a linear functional of the path is identified exactly when it annihilates that projection. It always contains an affine direction and, when the entry cohorts share a stride, periodic directions, which exhaust it under a connectivity condition on observed increments; second differences at that stride are then identified, and ordinary ones generally are not when the stride exceeds one. Under a recruitment condition, an interrupted schedule such as the four-eight-four rotation of the Current Population Survey (CPS) distinguishes a constant increment per interview from one per calendar month, which no equally spaced schedule can. We give support conditions for recovery under a plateau, entry-wave negative controls, or bounded cohort drift. A second set of results links identification to regression: two-way fixed effects absorb every unidentified direction, so the remaining conditioning bias is normalization-invariant and itself identified, and a two-way regression with tenure indicators corrects it under a residual-rank condition. When event time is aligned with tenure, conditioning shifts event-study coefficients by a known linear functional of the path, producing pre-trends without anticipation; bounds on identified curvature bound those shifts. Simulations verify the identities, a 19-wave Japanese panel illustrates the support calculations, and published CPS month-in-sample indices give a descriptive, not identifying, example.