Nonlinear regressions with nonstationary time series
非平稳时间序列的非线性回归AI 解读 ↓
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非平稳时间序列的非线性回归AI 解读 ↓
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This paper develops asymptotic theory for a nonlinear parametric cointegrating regression model. We establish a general framework for weak consistency that is easy to apply for various nonstationary time series, including partial sums of linear processes and Harris recurrent Markov chains. We provide limit distributions for nonlinear least square estimators, extending the previous works. We also introduce endogeneity to the model by allowing the error to be serially dependent on and cross correlated with the regressors.
I study randomization inference for dynamic causal effects in panels with many units and few periods when treatment is endogenous and an instrument is as good as randomly assigned only through the innovations of a first-order autoregressive assignment mechanism with unknown persistence. The persistence is a nuisance parameter in two senses: it determines which weighted average of heterogeneous causal effects the instrumented local projection estimand measures, and it governs…
协整回归变量:折叠凹惩罚何时超越 LASSO
LASSO is one of the most popular regularization methods for high-dimensional regression models. While cointegration is common in practical applications of predictive regressions with many regressors, the convex penalty of LASSO overly suppresses the coefficients of cointegrated regressors and therefore fails to deliver consistent parameter estimation. We employ folded concave penalties (FCP), including the well-known SCAD and MCP, to address this issue. Using FCP, we…
有意过度识别的局部投影
Local projections (LPs) have become a standard tool for estimating dynamic effects in macroeconomics and are typically implemented using ordinary least squares (OLS) for a given lag order. We propose an alternative approach that exploits additional lags as excluded instrumental variables (IVs). Under a finite-order model with martingale-difference shocks, the resulting (optimally weighted) IV estimator is never asymptotically less efficient than OLS and, as we show, can…
带移民的单位根Galton–Watson过程的漂移推断
We study inference on the drift of a critical Galton--Watson process with immigration, a count time series with a unit root. Climate change motivates such nonstationary models for weather-related disaster counts. The drift is the expected increase in the count per period. Ordinary least squares is inconsistent for the drift, so we study state-weighted least squares, giving greater weight to observations following small counts, where conditional variance is lower. Under…
近积分近白噪声框架下 M 类单位根检验的刻画
We derive the limiting distributions of the $M$-test family of unit root statistics in the nearly integrated nearly white noise (NINW) framework introduced by Nabeya and Perron (1994) in the case of an unknown linear time trend. In the case of known long run variance (LRV), the limiting distributions of the $M^{GLS}$ tests are contaminated by additional noise terms as a result of quasi differencing whereas these terms are less present in the $M^{OLS}$ limiting distributions,…
人为强迫、气候变化与变暖形态:分布协整的统计推断
Anthropogenic forcing components follow different long-run paths, while persistent temperature change can involve distributional changes beyond the mean. Scalar regressions aggregate these components and retain only mean temperature, obscuring how distinct forcing paths relate to persistent distributional change. We develop new testing, estimation, and inference methods for long-run relations between an integrated predictor vector and a density-valued response. These…