Interpretable Causal Inference for Analyzing Wearable, Sensor, and Distributional Data
可穿戴设备、传感器与分布型数据的可解释因果推断AI 解读 ↓
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Many modern causal questions ask how treatments affect complex outcomes that are measured using wearable devices and sensors. Current analysis approaches require summarizing these data into scalar statistics (e.g., the mean), but these summaries can be misleading. For example, disparate distributions can have the same means, variances, and other statistics. Researchers can overcome the loss of information by instead representing the data as distributions. We develop an interpretable method for distributional data analysis that ensures trustworthy and robust decision-making: Analyzing Distributional Data via Matching After Learning to Stretch (ADD MALTS). We (i) provide analytical guarantees of the correctness of our estimation strategy, (ii) demonstrate via simulation that ADD MALTS outperforms other distributional data analysis methods at estimating treatment effects, and (iii) illustrate ADD MALTS' ability to verify whether there is enough cohesion between treatment and control units within subpopulations to trustworthily estimate treatment effects. We demonstrate ADD MALTS' utility by studying the effectiveness of continuous glucose monitors in mitigating diabetes risks.
使用生成模型检验条件分布相等
Conditional distribution equality testing is a core problem with applications in causal inference, model diagnostics, and transfer learning. Existing methods often lose power when the conditioning variable is high-dimensional. We propose a new test that leverages generative models to compare conditional distributions using both observed data and synthetic samples. A sample-splitting and studentization scheme is introduced to control estimation error. Under the null, the test…
组间不平衡下的风险异质性稳健推断
Population-level heterogeneity is ubiquitous in biomedical data, where differences across demographic or clinical subgroups can substantially alter risk patterns. For example, in intensive care unit (ICU) studies, the mortality risk associated with specific admission diagnoses can vary across ethnic groups. Existing approaches for detecting risk heterogeneity are often sensitive to baseline model misspecification and regularization bias, both of which commonly arise in…
The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated in clinical studies to refute a homogeneous treatment effect hypothesis. Under this regime, all patients making up the population experience identical benefit from a given treatment relative to a comparator. Uncovering heterogeneous treatment effects through inference about the CATE, however, requires that covariates truly modifying the treatment effect be reliably collected at baseline. CATE-based…
非精确匹配何时能在无需调整的情况下保证平衡与有效推断?
One-to-one matching without replacement is a classical approach to constructing comparable treated and control samples in the design of observational studies. It pairs each treated unit with a distinct control while minimizing a covariate distance objective. With continuous covariates, the matched pairs generally remain inexact, which contributes to bias in downstream analysis. Its key theoretical properties, such as the resulting imbalance between matched pairs and when it…
多控制变量下工资不平等界的去偏推断
We study estimation and inference for a partially identified parameter whose identified set depends on a first-stage nuisance parameter that must itself be estimated. Combining the criterion-function approach with the theory of Neyman-orthogonal moments that underlies double/debiased machine learning, we propose a two-step procedure: the point-identified nuisance is estimated by flexible machine-learning methods, and the set-identified target is recovered as a level set of a…
样本选择下观测数据中总体平均与分位处理效应的部分识别
ABSTRACT This article partially identifies population treatment effects in observational data under both non‐random treatment assignment and sample selection. Bounds are provided for both average and quantile population treatment effects, combining assumptions for the selected and the non‐selected subsamples. We show how different assumptions help narrow identification regions, and we illustrate our methods by partially identifying the effect of maternal education on the…