Orthogonal Locally Ancillary Estimating Functions for Matched Pair Studies and Errors in Covariates
配对研究与协变量测量误差中的正交局部辅助估计函数AI 解读 ↓
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Summary We propose an estimating function method for two related applications, matched pair studies and studies with errors in covariates under a functional model, where a mismeasured unknown scalar covariate is treated as a fixed nuisance parameter. Our method addresses the severe inferential problem that is posed by an abundance of nuisance parameters in these two applications. We propose orthogonal locally ancillary estimating functions for these two applications that depend on merely the mean model and partial modelling of the variances of the observations (and observed mismeasured covariate, if applicable), and we achieve first-order bias correction of inferences under a ‘small dispersion and large sample size’ asymptotic. Simulation results confirm that the estimator proposed is largely improved over that using a regular profile estimating function. We apply the approach proposed to a length of hospital stay study with a mismeasured covariate.
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We develop a semiparametric continuous time inferential framework for testing cumulative treatment effects, including both immediate and carryover effects. The latent state process is modeled by an ordinary differential equation (ODE) whose drift depends on state and treatment, while the observed data are noisy measurements of this latent state at irregular, multi resolution time points. We define the average treatment effect (ATE) as the difference of expected cumulative…
Joint-event forecasts combine an estimated dependence model with current marginal forecasts. Retaining historical transforms at the marginal fits available when each outcome arrived creates overlapping estimation errors. We derive their joint influence with the terminal estimates in a stable Vine Copula VAR with normal innovation margins and a fixed, correctly specified Gaussian or positive Clayton vine. An intercept identity and the stable VAR filter reduce the historical…
We study inference for continuous linear functionals of solutions to ill-posed inverse problems, including Euclidean parameters arising in nonparametric instrumental variables, proximal causal inference, and shadow-variable models. Although pointwise root-$n$ inference is possible under standard conditions, we show that this need not translate into locally reliable inference. Under a model imposing only minimal regularity conditions, the target is Hellinger discontinuous…
近端估计与推断
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多因子线性资产定价模型 GMM 估计中的效率与定价精度权衡
Even though a multi-factor linear asset pricing model can be equivalently represented in a Beta or in a stochastic discount factor (SDF) form, its inferential efficiency and pricing accuracy features may differ when estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM), both in small and in large samples. We derive the analytical asymptotic variance of the Beta and the SDF estimators under GMM and find that the SDF approach is likely to be less efficient but to yield more…