A limit theorem for a smooth class of semiparametric estimators
一类光滑半参数估计量的极限定理AI 解读 ↓
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一类光滑半参数估计量的极限定理AI 解读 ↓
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We consider an econometric model based on a set of moment conditions which are indexed by both a finite-dimensional vector of interest, θ, and an infinite-dimensional parameter, h, which in turn depends upon both θ and another infinite-dimensional parameter, τ. The population moment conditions equal zero at θ = θ0. Estimators of θ0 are obtained by forming nonparametric estimates of h and τ, substituting them into the sample analog of the moment conditions, and choosing that value of θ that makes the sample moments as ‘close as possible’ to zero. Using independence and smoothness assumptions the paper provides consistency, √n consistency, and asymptotic normality proofs for the resultant estimator. As an example, we consider Olley and Pakes' (1991) use of semiparametric techniques to control for both simultaneity and selection biases in estimating production functions. The example illustrates how semiparametric techniques an be used to overcome both computational problems and the need for strong functional form restrictions in obtaining estimates from structural models. It also illustrates the impacts of (i) alternative estimators for the nonparametric components of the problem and (ii) alternative estimators for the standard errors of the estimated θ.
BLP 模型中的条件矩估计与推断
The random-coefficient demand model of Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) is commonly estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM), using an unconditional moment restriction with a fixed set of instruments. Identification of the model, however, rests on a conditional moment restriction. The two are not equivalent: the unconditional restriction may admit additional parameter values. We construct a counterexample in which the model is identified by the conditional…
基于机器学习的去偏 U 统计量
We propose a method to debias estimators based on U-statistics with machine-learning (ML) first steps. Standard plug-in estimators often suffer from regularization and model-selection biases, leading to invalid inference. We characterize orthogonal adjustment terms for two-step U-statistics, construct Debiased Machine Learning (DML) U-estimators, develop a cross-fitting algorithm, and establish a general asymptotic theory for inference with ML first steps. We illustrate the…
非参数工具变量估计泛函推断的惩罚 GMM 框架
This paper develops a penalized GMM (PGMM) framework for automatic debiased inference on functionals of nonparametric instrumental variable estimators. We derive convergence rates for the PGMM estimator and provide conditions for root-n consistency and asymptotic normality of debiased functional estimates, covering both linear and nonlinear functionals. Monte Carlo experiments on average derivative show that the PGMM-based debiased estimator performs on par with the…
利用大量弱交互矩的构造性工具变量识别与推断
Instrumental variable methods are widely used for causal inference, but identification becomes especially challenging when instruments are weak and potentially invalid. These challenges are particularly pronounced in Mendelian randomization, where genetic variants serve as instruments and violations of exclusion restriction or independence assumptions are common. We propose MAGIC, a constructive and assumption-lean framework that achieves identification even when all…
多弱工具变量下的非参数工具变量推断
We study inference on linear functionals in the nonparametric instrumental variable (NPIV) problem with a discretely-valued instrument under a many-weak-instruments asymptotic regime, where the number of instrument values grows with the sample size. A key motivating example is estimating long-term causal effects in a new experiment with only short-term outcomes, using past experiments to instrument for the effect of short- on long-term outcomes. Here, the assignment to a…
含生成回归变量的半参数模型之似然推断
Hahn and Ridder (2013, Econometrica 81, 315–340) formulated influence functions of semiparametric three-step estimators where generated regressors are computed in the first step. This class of estimators covers several important examples for empirical analysis, such as production function estimators by Olley and Pakes (1996, Econometrica 64, 1263–1297) and propensity score matching estimators for treatment effects by Heckman, Ichimura, and Todd (1998, Review of Economic…