Dynamic modelling and penalized likelihood estimation for discrete time survival data
离散时间生存数据的动态建模与惩罚似然估计AI 解读 ↓
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要的应用对象是生存数据,状态空间和Kalman算法本身不足以归入宏观时间序列。
离散时间生存数据的动态建模与惩罚似然估计AI 解读 ↓
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This paper describes a dynamic or state-space approach for analyzing discrete time or grouped survival data. Simultaneous estimation of baseline hazard functions and of time-varying covariate effects is based on maximization of posterior densities or, equivalently, a penalized likelihood, leading to Kalman-type smoothing algorithms. Data-driven choice of unknown smoothing parameters is possible via an EM-type procedure. The methods are illustrated by applications to real data.
Google Play 用户评论情绪指数的统计基础:信号融合、收缩、分布验证与动态平滑
The decision problem is whether valence among the users who write reviews of an app has changed enough to warrant investigation of a release, outage, or support issue. We propose a statistical specification for that decision, applied to written Google Play reviews collected under a declared locale, language, sort order, retrieval cap, and window rule. That endpoint returns a selected collection rather than a random sample, so the index describes review writers under the…
用收缩先验建模动态相关矩阵
Estimating time-varying correlation matrices is challenging because existing methods may adapt slowly to structural changes, impose insufficient regularization, or produce diffuse posterior uncertainty. In moderate dimensions, an additional difficulty is summarizing the estimated evolving dependence structure for downstream decision-making tasks. We propose a Bayesian approach based on a low-rank factor representation, with latent states evolving under a dynamic shrinkage…
贝叶斯分组回归的变分近似惩罚可信区域
We develop a fast and accurate grouped penalized credible region approach for variable selection and prediction in Bayesian high-dimensional regression. Most existing Bayesian methods either are subject to high computational costs due to long Markov Chain Monte Carlo runs or yield ambiguous variable selection results due to non-sparse solution output. The penalized credible region framework yields sparse post-processed estimates that facilitates unambiguous grouped variable…
函数形式灵活建模中协变量测量误差的校正方法:一项盲法、受控的中立比较模拟研究
Covariate measurement error is pervasive in epidemiological research and distorts estimated exposure-outcome associations, yet correction methods have been studied almost exclusively under linear modelling assumptions. Their behaviour when the underlying association is non-linear and is itself estimated with flexible regression, remains poorly characterised. We report a blinded, multi-stage neutral comparison simulation study, conducted within the STRATOS initiative,…
比例时间序列的 Beta-GAM 隐 Markov 模型
We propose a hidden Markov model for univariate proportion time series taking values in (0,1), where regime switching captures latent structural changes and the emission distribution belongs to the Beta family. In each latent state, the Beta mean is linked to covariates through a generalized additive model (GAM) with spline-based smooth functions, while the Beta precision is state-specific, enabling flexible modeling of both nonlinear covariate effects and regime-dependent…
植被绿度驱动因素的空间变量选择:面向 MODIS 植被指数
Understanding how environmental drivers relate to vegetation condition motivates spatially varying regression models, but estimating a separate coefficient surface for every predictor can yield noisy patterns and poor interpretability when many predictors are irrelevant. Motivated by MODIS vegetation index studies, we examine predictors from spectral bands, productivity and energy fluxes, observation geometry, and land surface characteristics. Because these relationships…