Differentiable Multi-Target Causal Bayesian Experimental Design
可微分的多目标因果贝叶斯实验设计AI 解读 ↓
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可微分的多目标因果贝叶斯实验设计AI 解读 ↓
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We introduce a gradient-based approach for the problem of Bayesian optimal experimental design to learn causal models in a batch setting -- a critical component for causal discovery from finite data where interventions can be costly or risky. Existing methods rely on greedy approximations to construct a batch of experiments while using black-box methods to optimize over a single target-state pair to intervene with. In this work, we completely dispose of the black-box optimization techniques and greedy heuristics and instead propose a conceptually simple end-to-end gradient-based optimization procedure to acquire a set of optimal intervention target-state pairs. Such a procedure enables parameterization of the design space to efficiently optimize over a batch of multi-target-state interventions, a setting which has hitherto not been explored due to its complexity. We demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms baselines and existing acquisition strategies in both single-target and multi-target settings across a number of synthetic datasets.
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) is a popular Bayesian ensemble model used in regression and classification analysis. Under this modeling framework, the regression function is approximated by an ensemble of decision trees, interpreted as weak learners. In this work, we propose a generalization of the BART model that has two main features: first, it automatically selects the number of decision trees using the given data; second, the model allows clusters of…
估计纵向因果剂量反应关系的贝叶斯框架
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潜在类别对处理效应的调节
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存在异质性时利用混合先验自适应结合随机试验与外部对照
When resources are limited in a randomized trial, a common strategy is to augment data from the control arm with external controls. We propose a hybrid group sequential Bayesian design that uses this approach to compare time-to-event distributions. The design allows between-treatment effects to differ between patient subgroups, and adaptively combines subgroups that have similar hazard functions. The aim is to reduce the control arm sample size without compromising the…