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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要研究通用动力系统方程发现与测量误差,虽使用时间序列,但未提供宏观经济或金融细分方向的充分依据。

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Lloyd Fung

用正交距离回归解决数据驱动模型发现中的变量测量误差

研究问题
从含噪时间序列发现动力学方程时,如何同时处理状态变量的测量误差与数值求导或截断产生的误差?
方法与思路
作者将方程约束软化,以正交距离回归处理解释变量和被解释变量的不确定性,并结合贝叶斯模型选择形成 ODR-BINDy。
材料陈述的贡献
摘要称,该方法在三个动力系统案例中优于所比较的 SINDy 变体,并能在所述最高百分之三十噪声下恢复 Lorenz63 方程。
阅读关注点
应核对双侧误差的建模和加权、软约束与模型选择规则,以及噪声比例定义、观测稀疏程度和基准调参是否一致。
阅读边界
这是 arXiv 预印本,同行评审及接收未核实;摘要未给出噪声分布、重复次数及成功标准,不能将案例表现推广到所有系统。

原文摘要

Despite the recent proliferation of machine learning methods like SINDy that promise automatic discovery of governing equations from time-series data, there remain significant challenges to discovering models from noisy datasets. One reason is that the linear regression underlying these methods assumes that all noise resides in the training target (the regressand), which is the time derivative, whereas the measurement noise is in the states (the regressors). Recent methods like modified-SINDy and DySMHO address this error-in-variable problem by leveraging information from the model's temporal evolution, but they are also imposing the equation as a hard constraint, which effectively assumes no error in the regressand. Without relaxation, this hard constraint prevents assimilation of data longer than Lyapunov time. Instead, the fulfilment of the model equation should be treated as a soft constraint to account for the small yet critical error introduced by numerical truncation. The uncertainties in both the regressor and the regressand invite the use of orthogonal distance regression (ODR). By incorporating ODR with the Bayesian framework for model selection, we introduce a novel method for model discovery, termed ODR-BINDy, and assess its performance against current SINDy variants using the Lorenz63, Rossler, and Van Der Pol systems as case studies. Our findings indicate that ODR-BINDy consistently outperforms all existing methods in recovering the correct model from sparse and noisy datasets. For instance, our ODR-BINDy method reliably recovers the Lorenz63 equation from data with noise contamination levels of up to 30%.

笔记与分组
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