Evolution as a Process of Causal Inference
作为因果推断过程的进化AI 解读 ↓
← 返回论文列表与筛选
阅读说明
本页整理公开书目信息，不生成学术质量评分。AI 解读根据题名及所注明的摘要或原文片段生成，未完成全文核验，可能有误；具体假设、证明与结论请核对原文。摘要保留来源文本，未经模型改写。
DOI 首次登记不等于接收或发表日期。部分更正、评论等条目没有独立摘要；缺少可靠材料时保留待补状态。
本页为预印本版本；arXiv 收录、作者填写的期刊信息以及作者既有发表经历，都不单独证明本篇已接收。作者发表记录按 OpenAlex 身份与完整姓名、本站覆盖期刊 ISSN 及正式卷期核对，只展示已核实例，档案仍可能误合并。
引用量采用 OpenAlex 单条关联记录，不合计多个记录；关联记录可能包含正式发表版本，不等于此版本单独引用。缺失不视为零，引用指标不代表论文质量。
关注作者按书目中的完整姓名匹配，同名和姓名变体需人工辨别。相关论文先按共享细分方向和具体方法排列，再参考通用方法与发表日期。
分类依据与纠错
AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类：摘要明确采用Neyman–Rubin潜在结果框架，并讨论因果识别假设与突变效应。
反馈分类问题
正在核对关联版本…
代码、数据与补充材料
正在核对对应版本的资源…
关注这篇论文的作者
作为因果推断过程的进化
- 研究问题
- 引入突变后，进化与贝叶斯学习的类比受到限制，能否用潜在结果框架解释突变和自然选择对适合度变化的作用？
- 方法与思路
- 作者将亲代与突变后代分别视为对照和处理单位，把因果识别假设映射到进化过程，并通过准物种方程推导适合度分解。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称，平均适合度的代际变化可精确分解为选择项与突变因果效应项，并在适当条件下扩展至广义复制子—突变方程。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对亲代与后代比较的反事实含义、识别假设的生物学对应，以及适合度分解和方程扩展所依赖的条件。
- 阅读边界
- 这是arXiv预印本，同行评审或期刊接收未经核实。论述至少限于静态环境中的单倍体复制者，摘要未提供全部条件与实证验证。
原文摘要
Recently, the mapping of the replicator equation onto Bayes' theorem has been recognised, leading to an analogy between evolutionary dynamics and Bayesian learning. However, this analogy holds only for pure selection in infinite populations and breaks down when mutations -- a central mechanism of evolution -- are introduced. Here I propose that evolution by natural selection, at least for populations of haploid replicators in static environments, is best understood not as a learning process but as a process of causal inference. Each mutation event constitutes a natural experiment in which the parent serves as the control and the mutant offspring as the treated unit. Natural selection screens the causal effect of the mutation on fitness, retaining mutations with non-negative effects. I formalise this view within the Neyman-Rubin potential-outcomes framework. I first develop the general theory using a generic fitness outcome and show how the core identification assumptions in causal inference (Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption, Consistency, Unconfoundedness, Positivity) map onto evolutionary biology. Using the unnormalised quasispecies equation, I prove that the intergenerational change in mean fitness decomposes exactly into a selection term -- recovering Fisher's Fundamental Theorem -- plus a mutation term that corresponds to a fitness-weighted average of the cumulated effect of all mutations over all parental genotypes. I show that this decomposition extends, under suitable assumptions, to the generalised replicator-mutator equation and that the frequencies of populations of matched parents-offspring update in proportion to the average causal effect of mutations on fitness.