Integration of Structural Equation Modeling and Bayesian Networks in the Context of Causal Inference: A Case Study on Personal Positive Youth Development
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因果推断中的结构方程模型与贝叶斯网络整合:积极青少年发展案例AI 解读 ↓
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In this study, the combined use of structural equation modeling (SEM) and Bayesian network modeling (BNM) in causal inference analysis is revisited. The perspective highlights the debate between proponents of using BNM as either an exploratory phase or even as the sole phase in the definition of structural models, and those advocating for SEM as the superior alternative for exploratory analysis. The individual strengths and limitations of SEM and BNM are recognized, but this exploration evaluates the contention between utilizing SEM's robust structural inference capabilities and the dynamic probabilistic modeling offered by BNM. A case study of the work of, \citet{balaguer_2022} in a structural model for personal positive youth development (\textit{PYD}) as a function of positive parenting (\textit{PP}) and perception of the climate and functioning of the school (\textit{CFS}) is presented. The paper at last presents a clear stance on the analytical primacy of SEM in exploratory causal analysis, while acknowledging the potential of BNM in subsequent phases.
贝叶斯神经网络辅助多处理混合治愈生存模型:儿科肿瘤应用
Estimating covariate-conditional treatment effects in multi-arm oncology studies is complicated when treatment arms have common distributional features and a non-negligible fraction of patients achieve long-term remission. We propose a joint mixture cure model with covariate-dependent mixtures of log-normal kernels with treatment-specific inclusions. Both linear and neural-network-assisted non-linear covariate links are proposed. Specifically, the susceptible survival…
图分割贝叶斯因果森林:空间异质性处理效应估计
In spatial observational studies, treatment assignment and outcomes often exhibit spatial dependence patterns, and treatment effects may vary across space and subpopulations due to both measured and unmeasured spatially structured confounders. Accounting for spatial dependence while estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) is a central task in spatial causal inference. Causal Bayesian additive regression tree methods are popular nonparametric methods for modeling…
超越单调性的异质幸存者平均因果效应:机械通气临床试验应用
Clinical trials in critical care often evaluate outcomes that are truncated by death, such as time to discharge alive, for which treatment effects are not well defined among patients who would not survive under one or both treatment strategies. Principal stratification provides a natural framework for defining survivor causal effects, but existing approaches often rely on monotonicity assumptions that may be implausible in settings where treatment can affect survival in…
贝叶斯网络通常满足忠实性吗?
Faithfulness is a common assumption in causal inference, often motivated by the fact that the faithful parameters of linear Gaussian and discrete Bayesian networks are typical, and the folklore belief that this should also hold for other classes of Bayesian networks. We address this open question by showing that among all Bayesian networks over a given DAG, the faithful Bayesian networks are indeed `typical': they constitute a dense, open set with respect to the total…
内生选择与溢出:政策相关因果效应的贝叶斯推断
This paper develops a new econometric framework to identify and estimate policy-relevant causal effects in contexts with endogenous selection into treatment and spillovers within single large networks or spatial settings. Conventional causal inference methods relying on either unconfoundedness or no-interference assumptions are generally inadequate in these scenarios. We introduce a Spillover Roy model that jointly models endogenous treatment selection and potential outcomes…
多方法因果证据综合:以跨方法趋同证据排序候选驱动因素
Practitioners inferring causality from observational data usually rely on a single method and treat its output as causal truth. Recent tools select an optimal method for a dataset, and recent ensembles aggregate multiple causal-discovery algorithms into one graph, but little work pools evidence across different mathematical traditions, including non-causal ones. We present Multi-Method Causal Evidence Synthesis (MCES), a framework that ranks which candidate drivers in an…