History-Conditioned Inference of Memory and Stochastic Forcing in Generalized Langevin Equations under Lévy Noise
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We consider the identification of memory and stochastic forcing in a one-dimensional generalized Langevin equation with state-dependent Brownian noise and optional additive symmetric $α$-stable jumps. A finite-dimensional Markov embedding provides Kramers--Moyal conditional moment relations that separate memory drift, Brownian diffusion, and jump contributions. From increment ensembles conditioned on the observed velocity history, truncated statistics estimate the stable parameters, corrected second moments determine the Brownian amplitude, and first moments lead to a Volterra equation for the memory kernel, solved by RKHS regularization. We establish conditional finite-sample bounds for the moment estimators and a conditional $L^2$ error bound for kernel recovery with a data-selected regularization parameter. Numerical experiments examine Brownian and Brownian--Lévy models under different forces, memory kernels, observation lengths, measurement noise, and approximate history conditioning.
连接局部与总体因果效应:近端工具变量方法
Instrumental variable (IV) methods address treatment endogeneity, but with non-compliance and heterogeneous treatment effects a binary instrument generally identifies the local average treatment effect (LATE) among compliers rather than the population average treatment effect (ATE). When treatment effects and compliance probabilities are heterogeneous and dependent through latent factors, the ATE need not be identified by IV variation alone. We develop a proximal…
向量值核岭回归的稳健误差界
While kernel-based learning methods for scalar-valued functions have been extensively studied, comparatively little work considers nonlinear vector-valued operators. Such operators with vector-valued outputs, e.g., state vectors and trajectories, commonly arise in system identification problems. In this paper, we study the problem of learning a vector-valued operator under the framework of vector-valued kernel ridge regression. We assume that the outputs take values in an…
空间函数对函数分位数回归
This paper introduces a novel penalized spatial function-on-function quantile regression framework for analyzing spatially indexed functional data, bridging a critical gap between spatial functional models and quantile regression. Our work makes three key contributions. First, we propose the first spatial function-on-function quantile regression model that jointly accounts for spatial correlation across curves through a functional spatial autoregressive structure while…
主分层下异质性处理效应的双重交叉拟合去偏机器学习
Principal stratification provides a foundational framework for causal inference with intermediate outcomes by defining causal effects within subpopulations, yet existing work has largely focused on average effects across strata rather than treatment effect heterogeneity within strata. Such within-stratum heterogeneity informs individualized treatment decisions but the associated methods are sparse. We address this gap by studying the identification and estimation of the…
XMSE 感知的自适应经验贝叶斯估计
Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators can match the first-order asymptotic risk of maximum likelihood (ML) while behaving very differently at second order: recent excess mean squared error (XMSE) analysis shows that kernel-based EB estimation may be worse than ML when the kernel is poorly aligned with the true parameter. This paper turns that diagnostic into a design principle. We propose an XMSE-aware mixed estimator that interpolates between ML and EB shrinkage. Its fixed-weight…
弱矩方法用于统计推断:兼论稳健估计应用
A companion paper develops a generalised framework in which a probability law is represented by a tempered distribution $T\in\mathcal{S}'$ - on the same footing as a density or characteristic function - and information is extracted by pairing $T$ with a positive Schwartz kernel $\varphi$ that acts as a measurement instrument rather than as part of the law; the resulting weak moments of all orders exist unconditionally. The present paper turns this into a methodology for…