Identification of Incomplete Preferences
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We provide a sharp identification region for discrete choice models where consumers' preferences are not necessarily complete even if only aggregate choice data is available. Behavior is modeled using an upper and a lower utility for each alternative so that non-comparability can arise. The identification region places intuitive bounds on the probability distribution of upper and lower utilities. We show that the existence of an instrumental variable can be used to reject the hypothesis that the preferences of all consumers are complete. We apply our methods to data from the 2018 mid-term elections in Ohio.
熵正则化最优传输下的部分识别
In many statistical settings, the available data and maintained assumptions do not suffice to uniquely identify the model parameters of interest. In such cases, one can only identify sets which are guaranteed to contain the true parameters. These are often characterized through linear programs that optimize over models compatible with the observed data. These programs can be infinite-dimensional in the optimizer and the number of constraints. We provide a unified way to…
稀疏市场—产品冲击下的离散选择需求模型估计
When credible instruments are scarce or estimates hinge on instrument choice, an alternative to the leading Berry--Levinsohn--Pakes (BLP) approach to demand estimation with aggregate data can be useful. We propose a Bayesian random-coefficients discrete-choice demand estimator that jointly recovers preference parameters and market--product demand shocks under a sparsity restriction, without requiring instrumental variables. Shrinkage priors select a sparse set of active…
条件线性规划聚合值的自适应估计
We develop a covariate-assisted approach to partially identified parameters that are solutions to an under-identified system of linear equations with known coefficients. Examples include bounds on treatment effects, models of unemployment with state dependence, choice-theoretic models of IV, and random utility models. The boundary (i.e., support function) of the proposed identified set is represented as an average of intersections of regression functions, aggregated over the…
可分二元治疗选择模型下的工具变量非参数推断
Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to infer treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we study nonparametric inference with an IV under a separable binary treatment choice model, which posits that the odds of the probability of taking the treatment, conditional on the instrument and the treatment-free potential outcome, factor into separable components for each variable. While nonparametric identification of smooth…
二元结果与线性交互
We consider general models of linear interactions in binary outcomes. We first characterize the conditions under which these models are coherent and complete. Next, we show that models of linear interactions admit sound microfoundations under assumptions of incomplete information and independence. To help guide practitioners, we discuss key modeling choices and testable restrictions. We then consider a specification that is linear in parameters, and propose a simple…
Summary Linear instrumental variables (IV) models with clustering dependence are widely used in empirical studies, although the common solution, the cluster covariance estimator, often produces undesirable inferential results, especially with weak instruments. In this paper, I propose a method that is robust to both weak IV and (potentially heterogeneous) clustering dependence. The proposed method is based on the idea of Fama–MacBeth estimation, with group-level estimators…