NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF LARGE SPOT VOLATILITY MATRICES FOR HIGH-FREQUENCY FINANCIAL DATA
高频金融数据的大型瞬时波动率矩阵非参数估计AI 解读 ↓
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高频金融数据的大型瞬时波动率矩阵非参数估计AI 解读 ↓
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In this paper, we consider estimating spot/instantaneous volatility matrices of high-frequency data collected for a large number of assets. We first combine classic nonparametric kernel-based smoothing with a generalized shrinkage technique in the matrix estimation for noise-free data under a uniform sparsity assumption, a natural extension of the approximate sparsity commonly used in the literature. The uniform consistency property is derived for the proposed spot volatility matrix estimator with convergence rates comparable to the optimal minimax one. For high-frequency data contaminated by microstructure noise, we introduce a localized pre-averaging estimation method that reduces the effective magnitude of the noise. We then use the estimation tool developed in the noise-free scenario and derive the uniform convergence rates for the developed spot volatility matrix estimator. We further combine kernel smoothing with the shrinkage technique to estimate the time-varying volatility matrix of the high-dimensional noise vector. In addition, we consider large spot volatility matrix estimation in time-varying factor models with observable risk factors and derive the uniform convergence property. We provide numerical studies including simulation and empirical application to examine the performance of the proposed estimation methods in finite samples.
含噪声且异步的高频数据下因子型瞬时波动率矩阵估计
We propose a new estimator of high-dimensional spot volatility matrices satisfying a low-rank plus sparse structure from noisy and asynchronous high-frequency data collected for an ultra-large number of assets. The noise processes are allowed to be temporally correlated, heteroskedastic, asymptotically vanishing and dependent on the efficient prices. We define a kernel-weighted pre-averaging method to jointly tackle the microstructure noise and asynchronicity issues, and we…
含噪高频数据积分协方差矩阵的因子估计
This article studies a high-dimensional factor model with sparse idiosyncratic covariance matrix in continuous time, using asynchronous high-frequency financial data contaminated by microstructure noise. We focus on consistent estimations of the number of common factors, the integrated covariance matrix and its inverse, based on the flat-top realized kernels introduced by Varneskov. Simulation results illustrate the satisfactory performance of our estimators in finite…
利用张量因子结构预测大型波动率矩阵
Several approaches for predicting large volatility matrices have been developed based on high-dimensional factor-based Itô processes. These methods often impose restrictions to reduce the model complexity, such as constant eigenvectors or factor loadings over time. However, several studies indicate that eigenvector processes are also time-varying. To address this feature, this paper generalizes the factor structure by representing the integrated volatility matrix process as…
高频价格停滞因子与波动率估计
In this article, we propose a price staleness factor model that accounts for pervasive market friction across assets and incorporates relevant covariates. Using large-panel high-frequency data, we derive the maximum likelihood estimators of the regression coefficients, the nonstationary factors, and their loading parameters. These estimators recover the time-varying price staleness probabilities. We develop asymptotic theory in which both the dimension d and the sampling…
高频价格停滞因子与波动率估计
In this paper, we propose a price staleness factor model that accounts for pervasive market friction across assets and incorporates relevant covariates. Using large-panel high-frequency data, we derive the maximum likelihood estimators of the regression coefficients, the nonstationary factors, and their loading parameters. These estimators recover the time-varying price staleness probabilities. We develop asymptotic theory in which both the dimension $d$ and the sampling…
基于惩罚已实现方差的高维二次变差估计
In this paper, we develop a penalized realized variance (PRV) estimator of the quadratic variation (QV) of a high-dimensional continuous Itô semimartingale. We adapt the principle idea of regularization from linear regression to covariance estimation in a continuous-time high-frequency setting. We show that under a nuclear norm penalization, the PRV is computed by soft-thresholding the eigenvalues of realized variance (RV). It therefore encourages sparsity of singular values…