On optimality of Bayesian testimation in the normal means problem
正态均值问题中贝叶斯检验与估计结合方法的最优性AI 解读 ↓
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正态均值问题中贝叶斯检验与估计结合方法的最优性AI 解读 ↓
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We consider a problem of recovering a high-dimensional vector μ observed in white noise, where the unknown vector μ is assumed to be sparse. The objective of the paper is to develop a Bayesian formalism which gives rise to a family of l0-type penalties. The penalties are associated with various choices of the prior distributions πn(⋅) on the number of nonzero entries of μ and, hence, are easy to interpret. The resulting Bayesian estimators lead to a general thresholding rule which accommodates many of the known thresholding and model selection procedures as particular cases corresponding to specific choices of πn(⋅). Furthermore, they achieve optimality in a rather general setting under very mild conditions on the prior. We also specify the class of priors πn(⋅) for which the resulting estimator is adaptively optimal (in the minimax sense) for a wide range of sparse sequences and consider several examples of such priors.
RBF 核高斯过程最大似然估计的精确渐近理论
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the…
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) is a popular Bayesian ensemble model used in regression and classification analysis. Under this modeling framework, the regression function is approximated by an ensemble of decision trees, interpreted as weak learners. In this work, we propose a generalization of the BART model that has two main features: first, it automatically selects the number of decision trees using the given data; second, the model allows clusters of…
凸正则化的谱依赖:右旋转不变设计下的基本极限
We study the fundamental limits of convex-regularized estimation in high-dimensional linear regression with right-rotationally invariant design matrices. We show that the asymptotic risks of convex-penalized least squares estimators are lower bounded by the risk of an approximate message passing algorithm known as Bayes VAMP, and we further characterize when the lower bound is attainable. As a technical ingredient in the proof of our lower bound theorem, we characterize the…
基于相容性的贝叶斯推断:渐近极限、变分原理与 Wasserstein 几何
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) replaces intractable likelihood evaluations with comparisons between observed and simulated data. We develop a measure-theoretic formulation of discrepancy-based Bayesian inference in which compatibility is encoded through nonnegative weights. For vanishing thresholds, we establish convergence of the corresponding posterior distributions in total variation. In the large-sample regime, we identify conditions under which the posterior…
采用图拉普拉斯基准约束先验的正则化小区域估计
Small area estimation (SAE) often requires both borrowing information across areas and benchmarking estimates to reliable aggregates. We develop a Bayesian framework that addresses these two objectives jointly through a new family of Benchmarking priors. The priors are induced by a benchmark-constrained regularization problem. The resulting family includes a Benchmarking Prior that incorporates the benchmarking restrictions without additional regularization across areas, and…
大规模需求估计的贝叶斯机器学习方法
This work studies how Bayesian machine learning methods can be used for large-scale demand estimation with many product categories. I compare two model classes, a latent factorization model and a mixed logit model and two Bayesian estimation approaches, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Variational Inference (VI). The analysis combines a simulation study with an application to supermarket scanner data. The results show that the latent factorization model benefits from…