Robust Conditional Wald Inference for Over-Identified IV
过度识别工具变量模型的稳健条件 Wald 推断AI 解读 ↓
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过度识别工具变量模型的稳健条件 Wald 推断AI 解读 ↓
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For the over-identified linear instrumental variables model, researchers commonly report the 2SLS estimate along with the robust standard error and seek to conduct inference with these quantities. If errors are homoskedastic, one can control the degree of inferential distortion using the first-stage F critical values from Stock and Yogo (2005), or use the robust-to-weak instruments Conditional Wald critical values of Moreira (2003). If errors are non-homoskedastic, these methods do not apply. We derive the generalization of Conditional Wald critical values that is robust to non-homoskedastic errors (e.g., heteroskedasticity or clustered variance structures), which can also be applied to nonlinear weakly-identified models (e.g. weakly-identified GMM).
弱识别下的置信集:理论与实践
We develop new methods for constructing confidence sets and intervals in linear instrumental variables (IV) models based on tests that remain valid under weak identification and under heteroskedastic, autocorrelated, or clustered errors. In practice, researchers typically recover such sets by grid search, a procedure that can miss parts of the confidence region, truncate unbounded sets, and deliver misleading inference. We replace grid inversion with exact and…
Two frequent approaches for identifying structural VARs are external instruments, which carry economic content but are often weak, and non-Gaussianity of the shocks, which provides statistical identification but carries no economic meaning. We combine the two strategies in a single generalized method of moments framework. This hybrid approach point-identifies the target shocks while also identifying the non-target shocks up to sign and ordering. Under suitable rank…
存在干扰参数时矩约束的统一推断
This article proposes a simple unified inference approach on moment restrictions in the presence of nuisance parameters. The proposed test is constructed based on a new characterization that avoids the estimation of nuisance parameters and can be broadly applied across diverse settings. Under suitable conditions, the test is shown to be asymptotically size controlled and consistent for both independent and dependent samples. Monte Carlo simulations show that the test…
时间序列中的动态局部平均处理效应
This paper discusses identification, estimation, and inference on dynamic local average treatment effects (LATEs) in instrumental variables (IVs) settings. First, we show that compliers--observations whose treatment status is affected by the instrument--can be identified individually in time series data using smoothness assumptions and local comparisons of treatment assignments. Second, we show that this result enables not only better interpretability of IV estimates but…
含干扰参数的矩约束统一推断
This paper proposes a simple unified inference approach on moment restrictions in the presence of nuisance parameters. The proposed test is constructed based on a new characterization that avoids the estimation of nuisance parameters and can be broadly applied across diverse settings. Under suitable conditions, the test is shown to be asymptotically size controlled and consistent for both independent and dependent samples. Monte Carlo simulations show that the test performs…
准贝叶斯层次模型
We develop the Quasi-Bayesian Hierarchical Model (QBHM) for grouped GMM settings. The framework combines Bayesian hierarchical modelling with Laplace-type estimation: it preserves each group-specific objective function, while introducing a pooling term for economically comparable parameters. When the number of studies is fixed, the QBHM estimator-the quasi-posterior mean-has the same asymptotic distribution as GMM when estimating strongly identified study parameters. For…