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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要研究临床纵向测量与生存结局的联合模型;重复观测本身不足以归入经济面板,治疗效应表述也未明确因果识别。

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关注这篇论文的作者
Ding Ma
Patrick Maher
Andrew Martin

基于半参数加速失效时间模型的贝叶斯联合建模

研究问题
如何联合分析重复生物标志物轨迹与事件时间,在处理二者依赖及信息性删失的同时,直接解释协变量对事件时点的作用?
方法与思路
作者构造半参数加速失效时间联合模型,以基函数展开基线部分,使用 Bernstein 多项式示例及重标度策略进行贝叶斯估计。
材料陈述的贡献
摘要称框架提供灵活且按时间尺度解释的联合模型,并在事件风险依赖潜在纵向过程的模拟中改善纵向治疗效应恢复。
阅读关注点
应核对纵向与生存过程的关联形式、基线展开和重标度的作用,以及删失设定、参数识别与模拟比较的覆盖范围。
阅读边界
这是 arXiv 预印本,同行评审及期刊接收未核实;摘要未给出性能数值,也未证明该方法在所有删失或关联结构下更优。

原文摘要

Longitudinal clinical studies often collect repeated measurements of biomarkers or health-related quality of life together with a time-to-event outcome. These processes are intrinsically linked: longitudinal trajectories may predict event risk, while event occurrence, or its anticipation, can induce informative censoring of the longitudinal process. Joint models provide a principled framework for handling this dependence, but most existing formulations rely on proportional hazards assumptions that may be restrictive and offer limited interpretability on the time scale. We propose a class of semiparametric accelerated failure time joint models that directly model covariate effects on event timing while flexibly capturing longitudinal-event associations. The survival component is specified through an accelerated failure time model with the baseline component represented by a flexible basis expansion, allowing a broad class of smooth baseline specifications. We illustrate the framework using Bernstein polynomial baseline representations and introduce rescaling strategies to improve numerical stability and parameter identifiability under time-warping. Estimation is conducted within a Bayesian framework, enabling joint inference for longitudinal, survival, and association parameters. Simulation studies reflecting realistic longitudinal trajectories, censoring mechanisms, and dependence structures are used to evaluate finite-sample performance. The proposed models show improved recovery of longitudinal treatment effects compared with a standalone linear mixed model when event risk depends on the underlying longitudinal process. Overall, the framework extends existing joint modelling methodology by offering a flexible and interpretable alternative to proportional hazards-based approaches.

笔记与分组