Principled Inference in Dense High-Dimensional Linear Models via Local Conditional Sparsity
基于局部条件稀疏性的稠密高维线性模型原则化推断AI 解读 ↓
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基于局部条件稀疏性的稠密高维线性模型原则化推断AI 解读 ↓
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High-dimensional inference methods often rely on coefficient sparsity, an assumption that can be restrictive when signals are dense but individually weak. In such settings, valid inference may still be possible if the covariates exhibit sparse conditional dependence. Motivated by this observation, we propose Neighborhood-Localized Nested Regression (NLNR), a framework for coordinatewise inference in high-dimensional linear models with potentially dense coefficients. The central idea is to localize inference for a target coefficient to a low-dimensional working regression determined by a Sparse Conditional Neighborhood (SCN) of the target covariate. Specifically, for a given covariate, we estimate its SCN through nodewise $\ell_1$-penalized regression and then fit a regression using only the target covariate and its estimated neighborhood. Under suitable regularity conditions, we establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimator. Building on this inferential reduction principle, we further develop a thresholding-based screening procedure with theoretical guarantees and a boosting variant that augments the working model with additional response-relevant covariates to improve finite-sample performance. Extensive simulations and an application to the CCLE dataset demonstrate favorable empirical performance.
半连续结果的潜在空间统计学习框架:正则化偏差与边界稳定优化
Semicontinuous outcomes characterized by an exact zero mass and heavy-tailed continuous distributions challenge empirical risk modeling and machine learning. Compound Poisson-Gamma Tweedie processes impose a rigid mean-variance coupling that distorts zero-mass probabilities under extreme tail dispersion, flattening continuous density and reducing extreme-risk discrimination. Furthermore, heuristic post-hoc target capping introduces systematic bias while leaving loss…
正则非光滑模型的归一化最大似然:测度论基础与几何采样
The Normalized Maximum Likelihood (NML) codelength, or stochastic complexity, represents a principled criterion for universal coding. While recent coarea-based formulations provided a calculation method for smooth models, this framework collapses for the non-smooth estimators ubiquitous in modern machine learning (e.g., Lasso, Sparse SVMs). In this work, we provide a rigorous framework for computing the NML for regular path-differentiable Lipschitz (PDL) estimators. By…
不可观测异质性的去偏机器学习:高维面板与测量误差模型
Developing robust inference for models with nonparametric Unobserved Heterogeneity (UH) is both important and challenging. We propose novel Debiased Machine Learning (DML) procedures for valid inference on functionals of UH, allowing for partial identification of multivariate target and high-dimensional nuisance parameters. Our main contribution is a full characterization of all relevant Neyman-orthogonal moments in models with nonparametric UH, where relevance means…
协变量漂移下外部有效性的简单稳健性度量
This paper studies the robustness of estimated policy effects to changes in the distribution of covariates, a key determinant of the external validity of (quasi)experimental results. I propose a novel robustness metric δ ∗ which measures the smallest covariate shift needed to invalidate an empirical claim about the policy effect (e.g., AT E > 0). I estimate δ ∗ via de-biased GMM, achieving a parametric rate of convergence while accommodating machine-learning estimators of…
深度变换模型
The increasing data complexity leads to the demand for more general and flexible modeling approaches. We consider a nonparametric transformation model with weak assumptions, which encompasses many popular models as special cases. A rank-based deep neural network (DNN) estimation approach is developed, with a loss function significantly different from the existing ones. It can accommodate outliers in response, which is a robustness property not broadly shared. For…
基于贝叶斯机器学习的决策论亚组发现
We consider the problem of identifying promising subpopulations in terms of treatment effectiveness or treatment effect heterogeneity, from a Bayesian decision theoretic perspective. We first show that a straight-forward application of Bayesian decision theory to subgroup detection leads to a counter-intuitive risk-seeking (RS) behavior. Motivated by this observation, we introduce the Bayesian Risk-Aware Inference and Detection of Subgroups (BRAIDS) utility and use it to…