Likelihood Ratio test for Poisson graph
泊松有向图模型的似然比检验AI 解读 ↓
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泊松有向图模型的似然比检验AI 解读 ↓
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Directed acyclic graphs are widely used to describe the causal effects among random variables, and the inference of those causal effects has become an popular topic in statistics and machine learning, and has wide applications in neuroinformatics, bioinformatics and so on. However, most studies focus on the estimation or inference of the directional relations among continuous random variables, those among discrete random variables have not gained much attentions. In this article we focus on the inference of directed linkages and directed pathways in a Poisson directed graphical model. We employ likelihood ratio tests subject to non-convex acyclicity constraints, and derive the asymptotic distributions of the test statistic under the null hypothesis is true in high-dimensional situations. The power analysis and simulations suggest that the tests achieve the desired objectives of inference. An analysis of a basketball statistics dataset of NBA players during 2016-2017 season illustrates the utility of the proposed method to infer directed linkages and directed pathways in player's statistics network.
贝叶斯神经网络辅助多处理混合治愈生存模型:儿科肿瘤应用
Estimating covariate-conditional treatment effects in multi-arm oncology studies is complicated when treatment arms have common distributional features and a non-negligible fraction of patients achieve long-term remission. We propose a joint mixture cure model with covariate-dependent mixtures of log-normal kernels with treatment-specific inclusions. Both linear and neural-network-assisted non-linear covariate links are proposed. Specifically, the susceptible survival…
图分割贝叶斯因果森林:空间异质性处理效应估计
In spatial observational studies, treatment assignment and outcomes often exhibit spatial dependence patterns, and treatment effects may vary across space and subpopulations due to both measured and unmeasured spatially structured confounders. Accounting for spatial dependence while estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) is a central task in spatial causal inference. Causal Bayesian additive regression tree methods are popular nonparametric methods for modeling…
整群随机试验中依从效应与网络因果效应的识别和有效估计
Treatment noncompliance is pervasive in infectious disease cluster-randomized trials. Although all individuals within a cluster are assigned the same treatment condition, the treatment uptake status may vary across individuals due to noncompliance. We propose a semiparametric framework to evaluate the individual compliance effect and network assignment effect within principal stratum exhibiting different patterns of noncompliance. The individual compliance effect captures…
逐步放量即可:网络干扰下 A/B 测试回归估计量的去偏
Network interference complicates A/B testing on online platforms, such as social networks and marketplaces, where causal methods based on single experiments often suffer from significant bias due to complex interference patterns. This paper demonstrates the statistical benefits of merging data from multiple experiments with varying treatment proportions. Sequential experimentation with increasing traffic, or ramp-up, is widely used in tech companies for risk management and…
多重处理因果推断中的重心融合 Gromov–Wasserstein 平衡
Estimating heterogeneous single and interaction treatment effects from observational data under multiple simultaneous treatments is crucial for decision-making. To mitigate estimation variance, previous studies balance representation distributions between every pair of treatment patterns. However, such pairwise balancing scales quadratically with the number of treatment patterns and fails to preserve consistent local proximity structures across patterns, which degrades…
靶向深度生存对比:神经网络下处理特定生存收益的有效推断
Neural survival models are increasingly asked to support counterfactual claims---how much a treatment would change survival in a population---rather than only prognostic risk scores. Answering such questions from observational data requires valid inference for treatment-specific survival contrasts under confounding and covariate-dependent censoring, targets for which standard deep survival estimators are biased and provide no honest uncertainty. We propose Targeted Deep…