A simulation estimation analysis of the external debt crises of developing countries
发展中国家外债危机的模拟估计分析AI 解读 ↓
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类：摘要明确使用多期多项离散选择模型，并分析多个发展中国家的多年外部融资数据，支持这两个方向。
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发展中国家外债危机的模拟估计分析
- 研究问题
- 如何联合刻画发展中国家外部融资危机是否发生及其程度，并允许多期结果背后的不可观测因素具有灵活相关结构？
- 方法与思路
- 作者建立多期多项离散选择及离散连续模型，比较平滑模拟极大似然与两种模拟得分估计，并采用递归条件模拟和 Gibbs 抽样。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称这些模拟估计具有有吸引力的统计性质且计算可行；在国家样本中，放宽不可观测因素的相关限制明显改变参数估计。
- 阅读关注点
- 核对三种估计方法的统计条件、模拟误差与计算负担，并检查危机指标、相关结构设定以及参数变化的经济含义。
- 阅读边界
- 仅据所给 Crossref 摘要，具体识别条件、统计性质和参数变化幅度未说明；样本结论不足以直接否定所有既有外债研究。
原文摘要
Abstract In this paper we develop models of the incidence and extent of external financing crises of developing countries, which lead to multiperiod multinomial discrete choice and discrete/continuous econometric specifications with flexible correlation structures in the unobservables. We show that estimation of these models based on simulation methods has attractive statistical properties and is computationally tractable. Three such simulation estimation methods are exposited, analysed theoretically, and used in practice: a method of smoothly simulated maximum likelihood (SSML) based on a smooth recursive conditioning simulator (SRC), a method of simulated scores (MSS) based on a Gibbs sampling simulator (GSS), and an MSS estimator based on the SRC simulator. The data set used in this study comprises 93 developing countries observed through the 1970–88 period and contains information on external financing responses that was not available to investigators in the past. Moreover, previous studies of external debt problems had to rely on restrictive correlation structures in the unobservables to overcome otherwise intractable computational difficulties. The findings show that being able for the first time to allow for flexible correlation patterns in the unobservables through estimation by simulation has a substantial impact on the parameter estimates obtained from such models. This suggests that past empirical results in this literature require a substantial re‐evaluation.