Microtransit adoption in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from a choice experiment with transit and car commuters
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新冠疫情背景下的微公交采纳：公交与汽车通勤者的选择实验证据
- 研究问题
- 疫情背景下，以色列公交和汽车通勤者如何权衡微公交的费用、时间、共享特征与感染风险，两组采纳倾向有何差异？
- 方法与思路
- 作者开展陈述选择实验，比较轿车与客运厢式车方案，并建立整合选择与潜变量模型，纳入共享态度及疫情经历和风险感知。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称，汽车通勤者对若干时间与疫情因素更敏感；公交通勤者对感染风险相对不敏感，共享认同也与汽车组采纳相关。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对实验属性与水平设计、样本代表性、潜变量测量和模型识别，以及弹性计算与陈述偏好向实际行为外推的依据。
- 阅读边界
- 这是 arXiv 预印本，同行评审及期刊接收未核实；摘要未提供系数、弹性数值或实际采纳验证，不能据此认定真实需求规模。
原文摘要
On-demand mobility platforms play an increasingly important role in urban mobility systems. Impacts are still debated, as these platforms supply personalized and optimized services, while also contributing to existing sustainability challenges. Recently, microtransit services have emerged, promising to combine advantages of pooled on-demand rides with more sustainable fixed-route public transit services. Understanding traveler behavior becomes a primary focus to analyze adoption likelihood and perceptions of different microtransit attributes. The COVID-19 pandemic context adds an additional layer of complexity to analyzing mobility innovation acceptance. This study investigates the potential demand for microtransit options against the background of the pandemic. We use a stated choice experiment to study the decision-making of Israeli public transit and car commuters when offered to use novel microtransit options (sedan vs. passenger van). We investigate the tradeoffs related to traditional fare and travel time attributes, along with microtransit features; namely walking time to pickup location, vehicle sharing, waiting time, minimum advanced reservation time, and shelter at designated boarding locations. Additionally, we analyze two latent constructs: attitudes towards sharing, as well as experiences and risk-perceptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. We develop Integrated Choice and Latent Variable models to compare the two commuter groups in terms of the likelihood to switch to microtransit, attribute trade-offs, sharing preferences and pandemic impacts. The results reveal high elasticities of several time and COVID effects for car commuters compared to relative insensitivity of transit commuters to the risk of COVID contraction. Moreover, for car commuters, those with strong sharing identities were more likely to be comfortable in COVID risk situations, and to accept microtransit.