The Profile Sampler
剖面似然采样器AI 解读 ↓
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剖面似然采样器AI 解读 ↓
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We consider frequentist inference for the parametric component θ separately from the nuisance parameter η in semiparametric models based on sampling from the posterior of the profile likelihood. We prove that this procedure gives a first-order–correct approximation to the maximum likelihood estimator and consistent estimation of the efficient Fisher information for θ, without computing derivatives or using complicated numerical approximations. An exact Bayesian interpretation is established under a certain data-dependent prior. The sampler is useful in particular when the nuisance parameter is not estimable at the rate, where neither bootstrap validity nor general automatic variance estimation has been theoretically justified. Even when the nuisance parameter is consistent and the bootstrap is known to be valid, the proposed Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure can yield computational savings, because maximization of the likelihood is not required. The theory is verified for three examples. The methods are shown to perform well in simulations, and their practical utility is illustrated in two data analyses.
靶向深度生存对比:神经网络下处理特定生存收益的有效推断
Neural survival models are increasingly asked to support counterfactual claims---how much a treatment would change survival in a population---rather than only prognostic risk scores. Answering such questions from observational data requires valid inference for treatment-specific survival contrasts under confounding and covariate-dependent censoring, targets for which standard deep survival estimators are biased and provide no honest uncertainty. We propose Targeted Deep…
Cox 模型的半参数 Fiducial 推断
Abstract R.A. Fisher introduced the fiducial distribution as a potential replacement for the Bayesian posterior distribution in the 1930s. During the past century, fiducial approaches have been explored in various parametric and nonparametric settings. However, to the best of our knowledge, no fiducial inference has been developed in the realm of semiparametric statistics. In this paper, we propose a novel fiducial approach for semiparametric models. In memory of Sir David…
局部稳健且半参数有效的贝叶斯推断
We propose a framework for making Bayesian parametric models robust to local misspecification. Suppose in a baseline parametric model, a parameter of interest has an interpretation in an encompassing semiparametric model. Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators are generally biased under local misspecification. We propose to augment the baseline likelihood by a multiplicative factor that involves scores for the baseline model, the efficient scores for the encompassing…
基于广义协方差的综合序列相关检验
We study nonlinear serial dependence tests for non-Gaussian time series and residuals of dynamic models based on portmanteau statistics involving nonlinear autocovariances. A new test with an asymptotic $χ^2$ distribution is introduced for testing nonlinear serial dependence (NLSD) in time series. This test is inspired by the Generalized Covariance (GCov) residual-based specification test, recently proposed as a diagnostic tool for semi-parametric dynamic models with i.i.d.…
用于因果效应不确定性量化的贝叶斯目标极大似然估计
Robust decision making involves making decisions in the presence of uncertainty and is often used in critical domains such as healthcare, supply chains, and finance. Causality plays a crucial role in decision-making as it predicts the change in an outcome (usually a key performance indicator) due to a treatment (also called an intervention). To facilitate robust decision making using causality, this paper proposes three Bayesian approaches of the popular Targeted Maximum…
创新项时间序列非参数建模下贝叶斯线性模型的渐近分析
This paper considers a semiparametric approach within the general Bayesian linear model where the innovations consist of a stationary, mean zero Gaussian time series. While a parametric prior is specified for the linear model coefficients, the autocovariance structure of the time series is modeled nonparametrically using a Bernstein-Gamma process prior for the spectral density function, the Fourier transform of the autocovariance function. When updating this joint prior with…