Asymptotic properties of high-dimensional random forests
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高维随机森林的渐近性质AI 解读 ↓
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As a flexible nonparametric learning tool, the random forests algorithm has been widely applied to various real applications with appealing empirical performance, even in the presence of high-dimensional feature space. Unveiling the underlying mechanisms has led to some important recent theoretical results on the consistency of the random forests algorithm and its variants. However, to our knowledge, almost all existing works concerning random forests consistency in a high-dimensional setting were established for various modified random forests models where the splitting rules are independent of the response; a few exceptions assume simple data generating models with binary features. In light of this, in this paper we derive the consistency rates for the random forests algorithm associated with the sample CART splitting criterion, which is the one used in the original version of the algorithm (Mach. Learn. 45 (2001) 5–32), in a general high-dimensional nonparametric regression setting through a bias-variance decomposition analysis. Our new theoretical results show that random forests can indeed adapt to high dimensionality and allow for discontinuous regression function. Our bias analysis characterizes explicitly how the random forests bias depends on the sample size, tree height and column subsampling parameter. Some limitations on our current results are also discussed.
贝叶斯加性回归树的稳健半参数推断
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) provide a class of flexible nonparametric regressions in machine learning. Their rich tree-based structure can generate non-Donsker classes of regression functions. We study posterior inference for the population mean under missing at random. We derive a new Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) theorem showing that even a one-step posterior based on BART and Bayesian-bootstrap reweighting retains a non-negligible bias term in the non-Donsker…
靶向深度生存对比:神经网络下处理特定生存收益的有效推断
Neural survival models are increasingly asked to support counterfactual claims---how much a treatment would change survival in a population---rather than only prognostic risk scores. Answering such questions from observational data requires valid inference for treatment-specific survival contrasts under confounding and covariate-dependent censoring, targets for which standard deep survival estimators are biased and provide no honest uncertainty. We propose Targeted Deep…
事件时间结果因果亚组估计的贝叶斯层级自助框架
Causal estimation of treatment effects within prespecified subgroups, such as biomarker-defined strata, disease phenotypes, or demographic groups are often of clinical interest. Bayesian approaches are attractive for subgroup effect estimation because flexible priors can represent complex treatment heterogeneity and propagate posterior uncertainty. Frequentist methods for prespecified causal subgroup analysis with time-to-event outcomes are also available, including…
高维 U 统计量中显式依赖阶数的线性化
We give an order-explicit large deviation bound for the difference between a high-dimensional $U$-statistic and its Hájek projection. In particular, we show that any $U$-statistic of order $b$ on $n$ observations, with a $d$-dimensional kernel whose coordinates have $ψ_1$-Orlicz norm at most $φ$, has a maximum deviation from its Hájek projection of order $O_p(φb n^{-1}\log^2(dn))$. The proof relies on the development of novel order-explicit moment inequalities for…
利用双重机器学习估计直接与间接分位数处理效应
We propose a framework to disentangle the quantile treatment effect of a binary treatment at a specific rank into an indirect quantile treatment effect that operates through a mediator and an unmediated direct quantile treatment effect. We establish identification results for these effects under the sequential ignorability assumption and propose double/debiased machine learning estimators, based on the efficient influence functions of the cumulative distribution functions of…
广义非参数模型中深度神经网络估计量的统计推断
While deep neural networks (DNNs) are used for prediction, inference on DNN-estimated subject-specific means for categorical or exponential family outcomes remains underexplored. We address this by proposing a DNN estimator under generalized nonparametric regression models (GNRMs) and developing a rigorous inference framework. Unlike existing approaches that assume independence between estimation errors and inputs to establish the error bound, a condition often violated in…