Prediction from Simultaneous Equation Systems and Wold's Implicit Causal Chain Model
联立方程系统与沃尔德隐式因果链模型的预测AI 解读 ↓
← 返回论文列表与筛选
阅读说明
本页整理公开书目信息，不生成学术质量评分。AI 解读根据题名及所注明的摘要或原文片段生成，未完成全文核验，可能有误；具体假设、证明与结论请核对原文。摘要保留来源文本，未经模型改写。
DOI 首次登记不等于接收或发表日期。部分更正、评论等条目没有独立摘要；缺少可靠材料时保留待补状态。
引用量采用 OpenAlex 单条关联记录，不合计多个记录；关联记录可能包含正式发表版本，不等于此版本单独引用。缺失不视为零，引用指标不代表论文质量。
关注作者按书目中的完整姓名匹配，同名和姓名变体需人工辨别。相关论文先按共享细分方向和具体方法排列，再参考通用方法与发表日期。
分类依据与纠错
AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类：摘要讨论一般联立方程与随机过程的预测理论，未提供归入所列具体领域细分的充分依据。
反馈分类问题
正在核对关联版本…
代码、数据与补充材料
正在核对对应版本的资源…
关注这篇论文的作者
联立方程系统与沃尔德隐式因果链模型的预测
- 研究问题
- 联立方程能否利用当期部分变量的信息预测其余变量？摘要围绕沃尔德的质疑，比较两类模型的预测信息条件。
- 方法与思路
- 作者从两类模型背后的随机过程出发，运用典型相关分析讨论预测问题，并考察消除沃尔德异议所需的补充信息。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称，两类模型可在随机过程框架下综合使用，其预测特点具有互补性，并提出克服相关预测异议所需的信息类型。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对当期信息集与可预测性的定义、典型相关分析的具体作用，以及额外信息如何使两类模型的预测结论衔接。
- 阅读边界
- 给定文本将讨论限于假定的随机模型，明确未研究更广经济适用性或结构参数的弹性解释；互补性仍需核对全文条件。
原文摘要
According to Wold, information on some of the variables at time t cannot be used for prediction of the values of the remaining variables at t, in a simultaneous equation system. This, however, is not the case with his causal model. This paper considers the stochastic processes underlying the two models, uses the theory of canonical correlation to discuss Wold's criticism, and suggests the type of additional information necessary to remove these objections. It further shows how both these models are complementary to each other. IN A SERIES of papers, Wold [9, 10, 11, 12] has recently proposed a new type of econometric model, which he calls the implicit causal chain model. The main incentive for this model was an attempt to combine the advantages of Tinbergen's causal model with those of the simultaneous equation systems initiated by Haavelmo [3, 4]. This latter model, which has been studied in detail by the Cowles Commission, is also known as the system. Wold has raised some objections, mainly from the point of view of prediction, against the simultaneous equation system; and in order to remedy these, he relaxed some of the restrictions on the correlational properties of the residuals in the simultaneous equation system. In this paper, these two models are discussed from an angle which offers a possibility for reconciling them. It is shown how the merits of both systems can be utilized by effecting some synthesis of them with the help of the stochastic process underlying both models. Furthermore, by using canonical analysis, it is shown how both these models are complementary. It must, of course, be added that the prediction problem has been considered purely on the basis of the stochastic model assumed, and the possible applicability of different representations of such models, for example, in economic contexts, under wider conditions is not discussed. Wold has objected to interdependent models on grounds other than prediction, especially from the point of view of the interpretation of structural parameters as elasticities, etc. The present paper, however, will not deal with this aspect of the problem. Instead, it deals primarily with the stochastic processes underlying economic models, and the demand and supply model, considered in the next section, is only for illustration.