Statistical Dependence between Random Effects and the Numbers of Observations on the Effects for the Unbalanced One-Way Random Classification
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This paper deals with certain aspects of variance component estimation for the unbalanced one-way random classification where the number (Ni ) of observations in the ith class is treated as a random variable not necessarily independent of the class effect (Ai ). It is assumed that in general P(Ni = 0) > 0. The conditional expectations (given the number of observations in each class) of all estimators of the between variance component (σ2 a ) belonging to a certain class of estimators are derived. A general expression is found for the expected value of that estimator of σ2 a yielded by analysis of variance of class means. The limit of this expression (as the number of classes → ∞) is given; and it is shown that, if the bivariate distribution function of Ai , Ni belongs to a certain class of distribution functions, then this limit is less than σ2 a . Numerical approximations to the expected values of two estimators of σ2 a are presented for one subclass of such distribution functions.
组间不平衡下的风险异质性稳健推断
Population-level heterogeneity is ubiquitous in biomedical data, where differences across demographic or clinical subgroups can substantially alter risk patterns. For example, in intensive care unit (ICU) studies, the mortality risk associated with specific admission diagnoses can vary across ethnic groups. Existing approaches for detecting risk heterogeneity are often sensitive to baseline model misspecification and regularization bias, both of which commonly arise in…
高维稀疏组卷积平滑分位数回归
In many applications, covariates are naturally organized into groups, yet conventional group-selection methods often retain all variables within selected groups, failing to achieve within-group sparsity. To address this limitation, we propose an adaptive two-stage sparse-group selection procedure for high-dimensional quantile regression. The proposed method integrates convolution-smoothed quantile loss with $\ell_{2,0}$ and $\ell_0$ penalties to identify important groups and…
无需VaR预测的期望损失E-回测:时间序列模型下的方法
Expected Shortfall (ES) measures the average size of tail losses. Its sequential backtests typically also require a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast. We develop two e-backtesting methods using only observed losses and ES forecasts: one for iid losses only and the other for time series under an AR-GARCH conditional VaR structure. Under the stated assumptions, both control false rejections at any stopping time. For the time-series method, validity requires a fixed…
The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated in clinical studies to refute a homogeneous treatment effect hypothesis. Under this regime, all patients making up the population experience identical benefit from a given treatment relative to a comparator. Uncovering heterogeneous treatment effects through inference about the CATE, however, requires that covariates truly modifying the treatment effect be reliably collected at baseline. CATE-based…
伪面板事件研究:可信应用的计量经济学基础
Event studies with panel data are widely used to estimate treatment effects. With repeated cross-sections, future treatment dates are unobserved for untreated individuals. Pseudo-panel event studies impute pre-treatment outcomes of the treated using matched untreated individuals. This paper establishes identification in such designs and characterizes bias when identification conditions fail. I show that the pseudo-panel regression is equivalent to weighted least squares with…
自适应实验中策略改进价值的推断
In this paper, we develop an asymptotically normal estimator for the value of policy improvement (VPI) under adaptively collected data. This value, which is defined as the gap between the value of the best treatment policy in a class and that of a baseline policy, gauges whether or not it is worth deploying a personalized treatment policy. Building an estimator for the VPI is naturally more difficult than estimating the value of a fixed policy. This is because, in addition…