Causal impact of severe events on electricity demand: The case of COVID-19 in Japan
严重事件对电力需求的因果影响：日本新冠疫情案例AI 解读 ↓
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严重事件对电力需求的因果影响：日本新冠疫情案例
- 研究问题
- 在持续多季节的疫情期间，日本电力需求受到怎样的影响，如何区分事件效应与季节波动，并理解不同时段的需求变化？
- 方法与思路
- 作者采用贝叶斯结构时间序列模型估计疫情对日本电力需求的影响，比较初期限制措施及炎夏、寒冬期间的需求变化。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要报告2020年春季需求下降，而随后炎夏与寒冬需求增加，并将方向变化解释为家庭与商业部门需求变化的相对大小。
- 阅读关注点
- 读全文时应核对反事实预测所用变量、季节与天气处理、疫情后的预测稳定性，以及部门变化解释是否得到独立数据支持。
- 阅读边界
- 这是 arXiv 预印本，不能据此认定已同行评审或获期刊接收；摘要未说明反事实识别假设、区间估计或部门效应分解依据。
原文摘要
As of May 2022, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) still has a severe global impact on people's lives. Previous studies have reported that COVID-19 decreased the electricity demand in early 2020. However, our study found that the electricity demand increased in summer and winter even when the infection was widespread. The fact that the event has continued over two years suggests that it is essential to introduce the method which can estimate the impact of the event for long period considering seasonal fluctuations. We employed the Bayesian structural time-series model to estimate the causal impact of COVID-19 on electricity demand in Japan. The results indicate that behavioral restrictions due to COVID-19 decreased the daily electricity demand (-5.1% in weekdays, -6.1% in holidays) in April and May 2020 as indicated by previous studies. However, even in 2020, the results show that the demand increases in the hot summer and cold winter (the increasing rate is +14% in the period from 1st August to 15th September 2020, and +7.6% from 16th December 2020 to 15th January 2021). This study shows that the significant decrease in electricity demand for the business sector exceeded the increase in demand for the household sector in April and May 2020; however, the increase in demand for the households exceeded the decrease in demand for the business in hot summer and cold winter periods. Our result also implies that it is possible to run out of electricity when people's behavior changes even if they are less active.