Approximate Random Variate Generation from Infinitely Divisible Distributions with Applications to Bayesian Inference
无限可分分布的近似随机数生成及其贝叶斯推断应用AI 解读 ↓
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SUMMARY Stochastic processes with independent increments play a central role in Bayesian nonparametric inference. The distributions of the increments of these processes, aside from fixed points of discontinuity, are infinitely divisible and their Laplace and/or Fourier transforms in the Lévy representation are usually known. Conventional Bayesian inference in this context has been limited largely to providing point estimates of the random quantities of interest, although Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have been used to obtain a fuller analysis in the context of Dirichlet process priors. In this paper, we propose and implement a general method for simulating infinitely divisible random variates when their Fourier or Laplace transforms are available in the Lévy representation. Theoretical justification is established by proving a convergence theorem that is a ‘sampling form’ of a classical theorem in probability. The results provide a method for implementing Bayesian nonparametric inference by using a wide range of stochastic processes as priors.
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处理是否有益?有序结局因果推断的贝叶斯方法
Randomized experiments with ordinal outcomes are common across scientific applications, but conventional causal estimands such as the average treatment effect are difficult to interpret because ordinal categories lack meaningful numerical spacing. Two interpretable estimands, the probabilities that the treatment is beneficial and strictly beneficial, depend on the joint distribution of the potential outcomes and are therefore not identifiable from observed data. The sharp…