Limit Theory for U-Statistics under Clustered and Weakly Dependent Data
聚类与弱依赖数据下 U 统计量的极限理论AI 解读 ↓
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聚类与弱依赖数据下 U 统计量的极限理论AI 解读 ↓
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This paper develops asymptotic theory and feasible inference for unbounded-kernel order-k U-statistics under clustered sampling and weakly dependent time-series. The analysis first builds the complete order-2 pipeline, moving from clustered data to exact $m$-dependence and then to near-epoch dependence. The same logic is subsequently extended to general order k greater or equal to 2. Under clustered sampling, the theory allows arbitrary within-cluster dependence and growing, unbalanced cluster sizes. Under weak dependence, an i.i.d.-based approximating sequence carries the exact-m theory to near-epoch-dependent processes. The common combinatorial device partitions the sample into columns, separating sampling-generic tuples, where the first-order Hoeffding projection is analysed, from collision terms and higher-order Hoeffding projection remainders, which are controlled explicitly. Cluster-robust and HAC estimators of the covariance of the first-order projection, needed for feasible inference, are shown to be consistent. Empirical applications and data-calibrated simulations for inequality, L-moment, and rank-dependence statistics illustrate the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedures.
重新审视免带宽推断:样本分割方法
Abstract The bandwidth-free tests for a multi-dimensional parameter have attracted considerable attention in econometrics and statistics literature. These tests can be conveniently implemented due to their tuning-parameter free nature and possess more accurate size as compared to the traditional heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent-based approaches. However, when sample size is small/medium, these bandwidth-free tests exhibit large size distortion when both the…
多步条件预测能力的自归一化检验
This paper proposes self-normalized tests for multistep conditional predictive ability in forecast comparison. By normalizing the sample mean of the transformed loss differential using functionals of its cumulative sum (CUSUM) process, specifically an adjusted-range normalizer for scalars and a matrix normalizer for vectors, our approach avoids direct estimation of the long-run covariance matrix. Consequently, it eliminates the need for the ad hoc bandwidth, kernel, and…
HAC 估计的自动阶数与带宽选择及特征值调整缺陷
In this paper, we propose a new heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix estimator based on the prewhitened kernel estimator and a localized leave-one-out frequency domain cross-validation (FDCV). We adapt the cross-validated log likelihood (CVLL) function to simultaneously select the order of the prewhitening vector autoregression (VAR) and the bandwidth. The prewhitening VAR is estimated by the Burg method without eigen adjustment as we find the…
非平稳性与模型误设引起的低频污染理论:对异方差与自相关稳健推断的影响
We establish theoretical results about the low frequency contamination (i.e., long memory effects) induced by general nonstationarity for estimates such as the sample autocovariance and the periodogram, and deduce consequences for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) inference. We present explicit expressions for the asymptotic bias of these estimates. We show theoretically that nonparametric smoothing over time is robust to low frequency contamination.…
广义脉冲响应与多期因果关系的简便稳健两阶段估计与推断
This paper introduces a novel two-stage estimation and inference procedure for generalized impulse responses (GIRs). GIRs encompass all coefficients in a multi-horizon linear projection model of future outcomes of y on lagged values (Dufour and Renault, 1998), which include the Sims' impulse response. The conventional use of Least Squares (LS) with heteroskedasticity- and autocorrelation-consistent covariance estimation is less precise and often results in unreliable finite…
可能误设与非平稳模型中异方差和自相关稳健推断的演化谱理论
We develop a theory of evolutionary spectra for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) inference when the data may not satisfy second-order stationarity. Nonstationarity is a common feature of economic time series which may arise either from parameter variation or model misspecification. In such a context, the theories that support HAR inference are either not applicable or do not provide accurate approximations. HAR tests standardized by existing long-run…