Marginal likelihood, conditional likelihood and empirical likelihood: Connections and applications
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Marginal likelihood and conditional likelihood are often used for eliminating nuisance parameters. For a parametric model, it is well known that the full likelihood can be decomposed into the product of a conditional likelihood and a marginal likelihood. This property is less transparent in a nonparametric or semiparametric likelihood setting. In this paper we show that this nice parametric likelihood property can be carried over to the empirical likelihood world. We discuss applications in case-control studies, genetical linkage analysis, genetical quantitative traits analysis, tuberculosis infection data and unordered-paired data, all of which can be treated as semiparametric finite mixture models. We consider the estimation problem in detail in the simplest case of unordered-paired data where we can only observe the minimum and maximum values of two random variables; the identities of the minimum and maximum values are lost. The profile empirical likelihood approach is used for maximum semiparametric likelihood estimation. We present some large-sample results along with a simulation study.
This article introduces a framework for evaluating statistical decisions under both prior ambiguity and likelihood misspecification. We begin with an ambiguity set - a frequentist model that pairs a possibly misspecified likelihood with every possible prior - and uniformly expand it by a Kullback-Leibler radius to accommodate likelihood misspecification. We show that optimal decisions under this framework are equivalent to minimax decisions with an exponentially tilted loss…
BLP 模型中的条件矩估计与推断
The random-coefficient demand model of Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) is commonly estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM), using an unconditional moment restriction with a fixed set of instruments. Identification of the model, however, rests on a conditional moment restriction. The two are not equivalent: the unconditional restriction may admit additional parameter values. We construct a counterexample in which the model is identified by the conditional…
允许反馈的非线性面板数据模型矩约束
Many panel data methods, while allowing for general dependence between covariates and time-invariant agent-specific heterogeneity, place strong a priori restrictions on feedback: how past outcomes, covariates, and heterogeneity map into future covariate levels. Ruling out feedback entirely, as often occurs in practice, is unattractive in many dynamic economic settings. We provide a general characterization of all feedback and heterogeneity robust (FHR) moment conditions for…
高度分层实验的估计效率
This paper studies the use of highly stratified designs for the efficient estimation of a large class of treatment effect parameters that arise in the analysis of experiments. By a “highly stratified” design, we mean experiments in which units are divided into blocks of a fixed size and a proportion within each block is assigned to a binary treatment uniformly at random. The class of parameters considered are those that can be expressed as the solution to a set of moment…
条件矩限制的局部稳健核设定检验
We develop kernel-based specification tests for semiparametric conditional moment models with high-dimensional nuisance parameters, extending existing conditional moment tests---which typically require asymptotically linear nuisance estimators---to accommodate modern machine-learning methods. The proposed locally robust kernel tests combine Neyman-orthogonal moments, cross-fitting, and reproducing kernel Hilbert space methods, yielding inference that is first-order…
Napkin 因果图下的因果推断
Unmeasured confounding can render identification strategies based on adjustment functionals invalid. We study the "Napkin" graph, a causal structure that encapsulates features of M-bias, instrumental variables, and classical back-door and front-door settings, yet identifies the average treatment effect through a nonstandard ratio of two g-formulas. We develop influence-function-based estimators for this functional, including doubly-robust one-step and targeted minimum…