Smooth Backfitting of Proportional Hazards With Multiplicative Components
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Smooth backfitting has proven to have a number of theoretical and practical advantages in structured regression. By projecting the data down onto the structured space of interest smooth backfitting provides a direct link between data and estimator. This article introduces the ideas of smooth backfitting to survival analysis in a proportional hazard model, where we assume an underlying conditional hazard with multiplicative components. We develop asymptotic theory for the estimator. In a comprehensive simulation study, we show that our smooth backfitting estimator successfully circumvents the curse of dimensionality and outperforms existing estimators. This is especially the case in difficult situations like high number of covariates and/or high correlation between the covariates, where other estimators tend to break down. We use the smooth backfitter in a practical application where we extend recent advances of in-sample forecasting methodology by allowing more information to be incorporated, while still obeying the structured requirements of in-sample forecasting. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
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跨空间时间序列的预测驱动推断
The following motif is common in spatiotemporal settings: we have a sequence of covariate and label pairs observed for a relatively short, recent time period. We have access to unlabeled covariates over a longer time period. Data is observed over many spatial locations. For instance, crop yield might be observed over a large geographical area for recent years, but weather data (which is informative about crop yield) is available for a much longer period. The goal is to…
大规模需求估计的贝叶斯机器学习方法
This work studies how Bayesian machine learning methods can be used for large-scale demand estimation with many product categories. I compare two model classes, a latent factorization model and a mixed logit model and two Bayesian estimation approaches, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Variational Inference (VI). The analysis combines a simulation study with an application to supermarket scanner data. The results show that the latent factorization model benefits from…