Flexible Bayesian Nonparametric Product Mixtures for Multi-scale Functional Clustering
用于多尺度函数聚类的灵活贝叶斯非参数乘积混合模型AI 解读 ↓
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用于多尺度函数聚类的灵活贝叶斯非参数乘积混合模型AI 解读 ↓
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There is a rich literature on clustering functional data with applications to time-series modeling, trajectory data, and even spatio-temporal applications. However, existing methods routinely perform global clustering that enforces identical atom values within the same cluster. Such grouping may be inadequate for high-dimensional functions, where the clustering patterns may change between the more dominant high-level features and the finer resolution local features. While there is some limited literature on local clustering approaches to deal with the above problems, these methods are typically not scalable to high-dimensional functions, and their theoretical properties are not well-investigated. Focusing on basis expansions for high-dimensional functions, we propose a flexible non-parametric Bayesian approach for multi-resolution clustering. The proposed method imposes independent Dirichlet process (DP) priors on different subsets of basis coefficients that ultimately results in a product of DP mixture priors inducing local clustering. We generalize the approach to incorporate spatially correlated error terms when modeling random spatial functions to provide improved model fitting. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is developed for implementation. We show posterior consistency properties under the local clustering approach that asymptotically recovers the true density of random functions. Extensive simulations illustrate the improved clustering and function estimation under the proposed method compared to classical approaches. We apply the proposed approach to a spatial transcriptomics application where the goal is to infer clusters of genes with distinct spatial patterns of expressions. Our method makes an important contribution by expanding the limited literature on local clustering methods for high-dimensional functions with theoretical guarantees.
RBF 核高斯过程最大似然估计的精确渐近理论
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the…
动态空间贝叶斯机器学习:美国代际流动与地理收入不平等应用
We develop a Dynamic Spatial Panel Bayesian Additive Regression Trees model with Horseshoe shrinkage (DSP-BART-HS) for high-dimensional spatio-temporal panel data. We jointly evaluate the model against a comprehensive suite of structural spatial econometrics, non-parametric machine learning methods, and small-area estimators across nine data-generating scenarios spanning 200 replicates each, including irregular spatial topologies, dense policy effects, and non-linear…
空间相关函数数据的小波贝叶斯层级模型与正则化马蹄先验
Environmental monitoring networks increasingly record pollutant levels as curves observed over time at fixed stations. Yet, exposure and risk assessment often require predicting these curves, with their uncertainty, at unmonitored locations. Conventional smooth-basis methods for such spatially correlated functional data, including spline-based kriging, tend to over-smooth acute, high-frequency episodes such as pollution peaks. We propose a parsimonious wavelet-based Bayesian…
用于地统计建模的最近邻非高斯过程
We develop a general class of nearest-neighbor non-Gaussian processes (NNnGP) for modeling geostatistical data. By introducing non-linear conditional mean functions into the Vecchia approximation, NNnGP extends the popular nearest-neighbor Gaussian process (NNGP) to effectively capture complex, non-Gaussian spatial characteristics. To ensure coherent spatial predictions from a single realization, we propose a regularized homogeneity condition across the univariate…
用 BAND 缓解维度灾难:高维非参数分布估计
Minimax-optimal rates for multivariate distribution estimation are known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We propose a sparse Bayesian network approach in which each conditional probability is estimated using sparsity-aware conditional mean methods. The resulting estimator, \textit{BAyesian Network Distribution regression} (BAND), handles mixed data types in high-dimensional time series and achieves polynomial total variation convergence rates while allowing the…
多变量贝叶斯机器学习模型的情景分析
We present an econometric framework that adapts tools for scenario analysis, such as variants of conditional forecasts and generalized impulse responses, for use with dynamic nonparametric models. The proposed algorithms are based on predictive simulation and sequential Monte Carlo methods. Their utility is demonstrated with three applications: (1) conditional forecasts based on stress test scenarios, measuring (2) macroeconomic risk under varying financial stress, and…