Heterogeneous treatment effects with mismeasured endogenous treatment
处理变量误测且内生时的异质性处理效应AI 解读 ↓
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This paper studies the identifying power of an instrumental variable in the nonparametric heterogeneous treatment effect framework when a binary treatment is mismeasured and endogenous. Using a binary instrumental variable, I characterize the sharp identified set for the local average treatment effect under the exclusion restriction of an instrument and the deterministic monotonicity of the true treatment in the instrument. Even allowing for general measurement error (e.g., the measurement error is endogenous), it is still possible to obtain finite bounds on the local average treatment effect. Notably, the Wald estimand is an upper bound on the local average treatment effect, but it is not the sharp bound in general. I also provide a confidence interval for the local average treatment effect with uniformly asymptotically valid size control. Furthermore, I demonstrate that the identification strategy of this paper offers a new use of repeated measurements for tightening the identified set.
单调性假设下分位数的非参数界:意大利教育回报应用
Within the inferential context of predicting a distribution of potential outcomes P[y(t)] under a uniform treatment assignment t ∈ T, this paper deals with partial identification of the α-quantile of the distribution of interest Qα[y(t)] under relatively weak and credible monotonicity-type assumptions on the individual response functions and the population selection process. On the theoretical side, the paper adds to the existing results on non-parametric bounds on quantiles…
无需第一阶段单调性的工具变量排除与外生性敏感性分析
Exclusion and exogeneity are core assumptions in instrumental variable (IV) analyses, but their empirical validity is often debated. This paper develops new sensitivity analyses for these assumptions. Our results accommodate arbitrary heterogeneity in treatment effects and do not impose any monotonicity requirements on the first stage. Specifically, we derive identified sets for the marginal distributions of potential outcomes and their functionals, like average treatment…
竞争风险模型中处理内生性的非参数工具变量方法
This paper discusses endogenous treatment models with duration outcomes, competing risks and random right censoring. The endogeneity issue is solved using a discrete instrumental variable. We show that the competing risks model generates a non-parametric quantile instrumental regression problem. The cause-specific cumulative incidence, the cause-specific hazard and the subdistribution hazard can be recovered from the regression function. A distinguishing feature of the model…
互补性与识别
This paper examines the identification power of assumptions that formalize the notion of complementarity in the context of a nonparametric bounds analysis of treatment response. I extend the literature on partial identification via shape restrictions by exploiting cross-dimensional restrictions on treatment response when treatments are multidimensional; the assumption of supermodularity can strengthen bounds on average treatment effects in studies of policy complementarity.…
连接局部与总体因果效应:近端工具变量方法
Instrumental variable (IV) methods address treatment endogeneity, but with non-compliance and heterogeneous treatment effects a binary instrument generally identifies the local average treatment effect (LATE) among compliers rather than the population average treatment effect (ATE). When treatment effects and compliance probabilities are heterogeneous and dependent through latent factors, the ATE need not be identified by IV variation alone. We develop a proximal…
利用鞅后验推断反事实分布
Causal inference is often focused on average effects, which can hide important aspects of the effect distributions. Here we consider the entire posterior effects distribution by estimating full counterfactual outcome distributions. We propose a methodology for inference on counterfactual distributions which builds upon the martingale posterior framework of Fong et al. (2023). This provides a highly flexible approach to estimating densities, distribution functions, and…