ON THE USE AND INTERPRETATION OF CERTAIN TEST CRITERIA FOR PURPOSES OF STATISTICAL INFERENCE
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某些检验准则在统计推断中的使用与解释
- 研究问题
- 如何为接受或拒绝总体假设的统计判断建立连贯的推理顺序，并用备择假设的相对可能性理解数值检验准则？
- 方法与思路
- 作者围绕假设间相对概率和似然准则展开论述，尝试以单一原则联系既有抽样检验，并讨论数值度量的限制。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要陈述了统一理解既有检验并向新问题扩展的目标，同时承认先验条件和现实限制难以完全由数值准则表达。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对相对概率、似然与置信程度的具体定义，以及正文如何联系已有检验；摘要中的目标不等同于已给出的定理。
- 阅读边界
- 材料为稿件版本未注明的 OpenAlex 索引摘要，部分符号排印不清需核对原文；不能据此推断具体最优性定理或现代检验保证。
原文摘要
In an earlier paper* we have endeavoured to emphasise the importance of placing in a logical sequence the stages of reasoning adopted in the solution of certain statistical problems, which may be termed problems of inference. In testing whether a given sample, Z, is likely to have been drawn from a population H, we have started from the simple principle that appears to be used in the judgments of ordinary life-that the degree of confidence placed in an hypothesis depends upon the relative probability or improbability of alternative hypotheses. From this point of view any criterion which is to assist in scaling the degree of confidence with which we accept or reject the hypothesis that X has been randomly drawn from HI should be one which decreases as the probability (defined in some definite manner) of alternative hypotheses becomes relatively greater. Now it is of course impossible in practice to scale the confidence with which we form a judgment with any single numerical criterion, partly because there will nearly always be present certain a priori conditions and limitations which cannot be expressed in exact terms. Yet though it may be irmpossible to bring the ideal situation into agreement with the real, some form of numerical measure is essential as a guide and control. In our previous paper we have made use of the criterion of likelihood. That there may be other forms of criteria or that this one can be interpreted in a different manner is very possible, but our object has been to find a single principle connecting the various sampling tests already in use, and one which could be extended to new problems.