Manipulating a Continuous Instrumental Variable in an Observational Study of Premature Babies: Algorithm, Partial Identification Bounds, and Inference under Randomization and Biased Randomization Assumptions
早产儿观察研究中连续工具变量的增强：匹配、部分识别界与推断AI 解读 ↓
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早产儿观察研究中连续工具变量的增强：匹配、部分识别界与推断
- 研究问题
- 如何在增强连续工具变量的同时保持对原研究人群的代表性，并对高等级新生儿重症监护治疗的样本平均效应进行部分识别推断？
- 方法与思路
- 作者提出非二部模板匹配，将数据嵌入目标配对随机鼓励试验，并在随机化与工具变量依赖的有偏随机化假设下推断 SATE 的界。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称设计可保持原队列特征并增强工具变量，且可能缩窄效应界；应用报告高等级 NICU 降低死亡率，非黑人低风险母亲组效应较小。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对匹配如何保持目标队列、两类随机化假设如何约束分配，以及部分识别界的推导、推断和亚组结论对工具变量偏差的敏感性。
- 阅读边界
- 这是 arXiv 预印本，不能据此确认同行评审或期刊接收；摘要未说明完整识别条件、效应界数值或区间，应用结论需结合设计假设判断。
原文摘要
Regionalization of intensive care for premature babies refers to a triage system of mothers with high-risk pregnancies to hospitals of varied capabilities based on risks faced by infants. Due to the limited capacity of high-level hospitals, which are equipped with advanced expertise to provide critical care, understanding the effect of delivering premature babies at such hospitals on infant mortality for different subgroups of high-risk mothers could facilitate the design of an efficient perinatal regionalization system. Towards answering this question, Baiocchi et al. (2010) proposed to strengthen an excess-travel-time-based, continuous instrumental variable (IV) in an IV-based, matched-pair design by switching focus to a smaller cohort amenable to being paired with a larger separation in the IV dose. Three elements changed with the strengthened IV: the study cohort, compliance rate and latent complier subgroup. Here, we introduce a non-bipartite, template matching algorithm that embeds data into a target, pair-randomized encouragement trial which maintains fidelity to the original study cohort while strengthening the IV. We then study randomization-based and IV-dependent, biased-randomization-based inference of partial identification bounds for the sample average treatment effect (SATE) in an IV-based matched pair design, which deviates from the usual effect ratio estimand in that the SATE is agnostic to the IV and who is matched to whom, although a strengthened IV design could narrow the partial identification bounds. Based on our proposed strengthened-IV design, we found that delivering at a high-level NICU reduced preterm babies' mortality rate compared to a low-level NICU for $81,766 \times 2 = 163,532$ mothers and their preterm babies and the effect appeared to be minimal among non-black, low-risk mothers.