Functional Partial Least-Squares: Adaptive Estimation and Inference
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We study the linear regression model with a scalar response and a functional predictor, a canonical example of an ill-posed inverse problem. We show that the functional partial least-squares (PLS) estimator achieves convergence rates that are nearly minimax-optimal over a class of ellipsoids and propose an adaptive early-stopping procedure for selecting the number of PLS components. In addition, we develop a new test that detects parametric local alternatives. The test can be inverted to construct confidence sets for the functional slope parameter. Simulation results show that the estimator performs favorably relative to several existing methods, and that the proposed test has good power. We apply our methodology to evaluate the nonlinear effects of temperature on corn and soybean yields. We provide a Python software library, fpls, implementing our method. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.
Two frequent approaches for identifying structural VARs are external instruments, which carry economic content but are often weak, and non-Gaussianity of the shocks, which provides statistical identification but carries no economic meaning. We combine the two strategies in a single generalized method of moments framework. This hybrid approach point-identifies the target shocks while also identifying the non-target shocks up to sign and ordering. Under suitable rank…
多层主效应矩阵因子模型
We propose a multilevel main effects matrix factor model (MMEFM) to extract meaningful row and column effects from groups of matrix data. As a generalization of a multilevel matrix factor model, we provide rigorous definitions of MMEFM and identifications, together with iterative algorithms for the estimators of all global and local components in the main effects and common component, including global/local main effects and core ranks, with rates of convergence spelt out. An…
PICPIs:预测区间条件预测区间
A classical question in statistics is which observable quantities to condition on when drawing inferences about unobservable targets. For conformal prediction in nonparametric uncertainty quantification, standard marginal validity offers limited resolution at the prediction values on which decisions are based, and fully conditional guarantees with respect to the covariates are provably unattainable. We address this gap by introducing a prediction-based conditioning framework…
高维线性模型中基于汇总统计量的遗传力估计的一致性
In Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS), heritability is defined as the fraction of variance of an outcome explained by a large number of genetic predictors in a high-dimensional polygenic linear model. This work studies the asymptotic properties of the most common estimator of heritability from summary statistics called linkage disequilibrium score (LDSC) regression, together with a simpler and closely related estimator called GWAS heritability (GWASH). These estimators…
超越协方差的线性回归:高阶累积量中的潜在斜率谱
Least squares summarizes the joint distribution of a response and regressor through second-order information. When an observed regressor is composed of latent components carrying different relationships with the response, this summary can average over distinct linear effects. We study the additional linear information contained in higher-order mixed cumulants and formalize it through the latent slope spectrum. Ordinary least squares is a variance-weighted barycenter of this…
The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated in clinical studies to refute a homogeneous treatment effect hypothesis. Under this regime, all patients making up the population experience identical benefit from a given treatment relative to a comparator. Uncovering heterogeneous treatment effects through inference about the CATE, however, requires that covariates truly modifying the treatment effect be reliably collected at baseline. CATE-based…