Good and Optimal Ridge Estimators
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In generalized ridge estimation, the components of the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression coefficient vector which lie along the principal axes of the given regressor data are rescaled using known ridge factors. Generalizing a result of Swindel and Chapman, it is shown that, if each ridge factor is nonstochastic, nonnegative, and less than one, then there is at most one unknown direction in regression coefficient space along which ridge coefficients have larger mean squared error than do OLS coefficients. Then, by decomposing the mean squared error of a ridge estimator into components parallel to and orthogonal to the unknown true regression coefficient vector, new insight is gained about definitions for optimal factors. Estimators of certain unknown quantities are displayed which are maximum likelihood or unbiased under normal theory or which have correct range.
Normality pre-tests on reduced-form innovations cannot detect whether two or more underlying structural shocks are Gaussian, and hence cannot detect a failure of identification in non-Gaussian SVARs. We propose a bootstrap-based approach that reveals such a failure. Under the null of valid identification and certain regularity conditions, the conditional bootstrap distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the impact matrix is asymptotically normal, so the…
This article introduces a framework for evaluating statistical decisions under both prior ambiguity and likelihood misspecification. We begin with an ambiguity set - a frequentist model that pairs a possibly misspecified likelihood with every possible prior - and uniformly expand it by a Kullback-Leibler radius to accommodate likelihood misspecification. We show that optimal decisions under this framework are equivalent to minimax decisions with an exponentially tilted loss…
RBF 核高斯过程最大似然估计的精确渐近理论
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the…
理性疏忽—加性随机效用模型的估计
This paper develops likelihood-based estimation for parametric rational inattention--additive random utility models. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the exact maximum likelihood estimator and provide conditions under which the simulated estimator shares its asymptotic distribution. To implement estimation, we develop Newton--BA, a KKT-guided hybrid of Newton--Raphson and Blahut--Arimoto (BA). The algorithm accommodates both interior and boundary…
TMLE 与 AIPW 中样本分割选择何时重要:交叉拟合、目标化与重复
Variants of targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) and augmented inverse-probability weighting (AIPW) with machine-learning nuisance models differ in which observations train them, how bias is corrected, and whether splits are repeated. In known-truth simulations of a binary-outcome average treatment effect, eight headline estimators shared each setting's library, inner folds and truncation bound; coverage differences were judged against a prespecified…
矩阵值 CP 因子模型的识别问题与准极大似然估计
Matrix-valued time series, arising in diverse fields such as economics, neuroscience, and recommender systems, have become increasingly prominent in modern data analysis. Among various modeling frameworks, the matrix-variate CP-factor model represents an important and widely applicable class for capturing low-rank structures in matrix time series. In this paper, we provide a unified treatment for the identification problem of CP factor models using both analytic and…