Causal Regularization: On the trade-off between in-sample risk and out-of-sample risk guarantees
因果正则化:样本内风险与样本外风险保证的权衡AI 解读 ↓
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因果正则化:样本内风险与样本外风险保证的权衡AI 解读 ↓
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Invariant prediction uses the prediction stability of causal relationships across different environments to identify causal variables. Conversely, using causal variables gives prediction guarantees even in out-of-sample data settings. In this paper, we investigate the identification of causal-like models from in-sample data that ensure out-of-sample risk guarantees when predicting a target variable from an arbitrary set of covariates. Ordinary least squares minimizes in-sample risk but offers limited out-of-sample guarantees, while causal models optimize out-of-sample guarantees at the expense of in-sample performance. We introduce a form of \textit{causal regularization} to balance these properties. In the population setting, higher regularization yields estimators with greater risk stability, albeit with increased in-sample risk. Empirically, however, there is a further trade-off to consider, as finite in-sample data reduced the ability to correctly identify models with high out-of-sample risk guarantees. We show how in such empirical settings the optimal causal regularizer can be found via cross-validation.
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连接局部与总体因果效应:近端工具变量方法
Instrumental variable (IV) methods address treatment endogeneity, but with non-compliance and heterogeneous treatment effects a binary instrument generally identifies the local average treatment effect (LATE) among compliers rather than the population average treatment effect (ATE). When treatment effects and compliance probabilities are heterogeneous and dependent through latent factors, the ATE need not be identified by IV variation alone. We develop a proximal…