Adaptive estimation of multivariate piecewise polynomials and bounded variation functions by optimal decision trees
用最优决策树自适应估计多元分段多项式与有界变差函数AI 解读 ↓
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Proposed by Donoho (Ann. Statist. 25 (1997) 1870–1911), Dyadic CART is a nonparametric regression method which computes a globally optimal dyadic decision tree and fits piecewise constant functions in two dimensions. In this article, we define and study Dyadic CART and a closely related estimator, namely Optimal Regression Tree (ORT), in the context of estimating piecewise smooth functions in general dimensions in the fixed design setup. More precisely, these optimal decision tree estimators fit piecewise polynomials of any given degree. Like Dyadic CART in two dimensions, we reason that these estimators can also be computed in polynomial time in the sample size N via dynamic programming. We prove oracle inequalities for the finite sample risk of Dyadic CART and ORT, which imply tight risk bounds for several function classes of interest. First, they imply that the finite sample risk of ORT of order r≥0 is always bounded by CklogN N whenever the regression function is piecewise polynomial of degree r on some reasonably regular axis aligned rectangular partition of the domain with at most k rectangles. Beyond the univariate case, such guarantees are scarcely available in the literature for computationally efficient estimators. Second, our oracle inequalities uncover minimax rate optimality and adaptivity of the Dyadic CART estimator for function spaces with bounded variation. We consider two function spaces of recent interest where multivariate total variation denoising and univariate trend filtering are the state of the art methods. We show that Dyadic CART enjoys certain advantages over these estimators while still maintaining all their known guarantees.
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Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects from non-randomized data. A canonical example is a randomized trial with noncompliance, in which the randomized treatment assignment serves as an IV for the non-ignorable treatment received. Under a monotonicity assumption, a valid IV nonparametrically identifies the average treatment effect among a latent complier subgroup, whose generalizability is often under debate. In many studies, there exist…
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前门模型下因果效应的灵活非参数推断
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使用 AI 学习表征的实用双重机器学习
Text, images, and other rich covariates are increasingly compressed into AI-learned representations and then used as controls in causal analysis. We study when this approach is valid and develop a practical framework for causal inference with learned representations. For a broad class of estimands, an imperfect representation distorts the target causal parameter by the product of two representation errors: one in the outcome regression and one in the balancing weight (or…
最优配置与曲面下体积
This paper develops a framework for estimation and inference on the volumes of sets that are projections of critical function sets, focusing particularly on the convex body beneath the optimal receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surface. Specifically, we propose a volume calculation method that first uses an Aumann expectation representation and then applies Minkowski mixed volumes. Using this framework, we show that the population volume under the ROC surface (VUS) is…
随时间刻画幸存者主层:识别、有效估计与敏感性分析
Longitudinal studies with functional outcomes subject to truncation-by-death frequently report time-indexed survivor average causal effect estimates, defined among individuals who would survive regardless of treatment assignment. Because the survivor stratum can change over time, the resulting effect estimates may pertain to populations with different characteristics. We propose accompanying survivor average causal effect estimates with measures of covariate divergence…