Nonparametric estimation of surface integrals
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The estimation of surface integrals on the boundary of an unknown body is a challenge for nonparametric methods in statistics, with powerful applications to physics and image analysis, among other fields. Provided that one can determine whether random shots hit the body, Cuevas et al. [Ann. Statist. 35 (2007) 1031–1051] estimate the boundary measure (the boundary length for planar sets and the surface area for 3-dimensional objects) via the consideration of shots at a box containing the body. The statistics considered by these authors, as well as those in subsequent papers, are based on the estimation of Minkowski content and depend on a smoothing parameter which must be carefully chosen. For the same sampling scheme, we introduce a new approach which bypasses this issue, providing strongly consistent estimators of both the boundary measure and the surface integrals of scalar functions, provided one can collect the function values at the sample points. Examples arise in experiments in which the density of the body can be measured by physical properties of the impacts, or in situations where such quantities as temperature and humidity are observed by randomly distributed sensors. Our method is based on random Delaunay triangulations and involves a simple procedure for surface reconstruction from a dense cloud of points inside and outside the body. We obtain basic asymptotics of the estimator, perform simulations and discuss, via Google Earth’s data, an application to the image analysis of the Aral Sea coast and its cliffs.
We develop a semiparametric continuous time inferential framework for testing cumulative treatment effects, including both immediate and carryover effects. The latent state process is modeled by an ordinary differential equation (ODE) whose drift depends on state and treatment, while the observed data are noisy measurements of this latent state at irregular, multi resolution time points. We define the average treatment effect (ATE) as the difference of expected cumulative…
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Real-world public health policies are often enacted by local jurisdictions, but their effects can ripple through connected populations. For causal evaluation, this creates a difficult spatiotemporal problem: intermittent policy updates create path-level treatments, and because spillover depends on neighboring treatment paths along with the focal-unit's own history, controlling time-varying confounding requires high-dimensional, multimodal information from both sources. To…
时空干扰下用于实验的聚类切换设计
We consider experimentation in the presence of non-stationarity, inter-unit (spatial) interference, and carry-over effects (temporal interference), where we wish to estimate the global average treatment effect (GATE), the difference between average outcomes having exposed all units at all times to treatment or to control. We suppose spatial interference is described by a graph, where a unit's outcome depends on its neighborhood's treatments, and that temporal interference is…
We study inference for continuous linear functionals of solutions to ill-posed inverse problems, including Euclidean parameters arising in nonparametric instrumental variables, proximal causal inference, and shadow-variable models. Although pointwise root-$n$ inference is possible under standard conditions, we show that this need not translate into locally reliable inference. Under a model imposing only minimal regularity conditions, the target is Hellinger discontinuous…
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This article introduces a framework for evaluating statistical decisions under both prior ambiguity and likelihood misspecification. We begin with an ambiguity set - a frequentist model that pairs a possibly misspecified likelihood with every possible prior - and uniformly expand it by a Kullback-Leibler radius to accommodate likelihood misspecification. We show that optimal decisions under this framework are equivalent to minimax decisions with an exponentially tilted loss…