On the asymptotics of marginal regression splines with longitudinal data
纵向数据边际回归样条的渐近性质AI 解读 ↓
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纵向数据边际回归样条的渐近性质AI 解读 ↓
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There have been studies on how the asymptotic efficiency of a nonparametric function estimator depends on the handling of the within-cluster correlation when nonparametric regression models are used on longitudinal or cluster data. In particular, methods based on smoothing splines and local polynomial kernels exhibit different behaviour. We show that the generalized estimation equations based on weighted least squares regression splines for the nonparametric function have an interesting property: the asymptotic bias of the estimator does not depend on the working correlation matrix, but the asymptotic variance, and therefore the mean squared error, is minimized when the true correlation structure is specified. This property of the asymptotic bias distinguishes regression splines from smoothing splines.
平均处理效应局部化:合成控制中的投影方法
Many real-world policies and business interventions require assessing short-term effects to inform timely decisions, even though most causal inference methods focus on long-term average treatment effects. In this article, we introduce average treatment effect localization (ATEL), which captures localized, short-term policy impacts in panel data settings with a single treated unit and provides early indicators of policy impact. To accommodate both time-varying and nonlinear…
大面板中的简洁、无需特定参数设定的因果推断
We propose a simple and transparent approach to causal inference using panel data with a large number of units and periods. Instead of imposing a particular parametric specification on the untreated potential outcomes, we assume they follow a nonparametric nonseparable factor model. We use long pre-treatment outcome histories to construct a measure of similarity between the latent factors of different units. Using this measure, we impute missing counterfactual means and…
动态选择下的因果推断:时变协变量与潜在异质性
I study dynamic treatment effects in panel data under staggered adoption when treatment timing depends jointly on unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity and time-varying pretreatment covariates, including lagged outcomes. Untreated potential outcomes follow a nonparametric dynamic panel model that allows flexible interactions between time-varying covariates and latent heterogeneity. I use pretreatment outcome histories to find individuals with similar time-invariant latent…
平均处理效应的局部化:合成控制中的投影方法
Many real-world policies and business interventions require assessing short-term effects to inform timely decisions, even though most causal inference methods focus on long-term average treatment effects. In this paper, we introduce average treatment effect localization (ATEL), which captures localized, short-term policy impacts in panel data settings with a single treated unit and provides early indicators of policy impact. To accommodate both time-varying and nonlinear…
因果状态依赖局部投影
State-dependent local projections (LPs) are widely used to study how causal effects vary as a function of economic states, but shock exogeneity alone does not identify this response function. We show that identification follows when the underlying conditional mean is linear in the shock with a state-dependent coefficient, a condition satisfied in canonical micro-macro environments, including first-order perturbation solutions of heterogeneous-agent and macro-finance models.…
使用 mgcv 估计半参数与非参数固定效应面板模型
This paper provides a practical guide to estimating semiparametric and nonparametric fixed-effects panel data models using the mgcv package in R. The focus is implementation: handling fixed effects with unit indicators, first differencing, or penalized unit effects; specifying smooth terms; and conducting cluster-robust inference. Monte Carlo experiments compare \code{mgcv::bam} estimators with linear and fixed-series spline estimators. Simulations suggest that penalized…