Convergence of Simar's Algorithm for Finding the Maximum Likelihood Estimate of a Compound Poisson Process
复合泊松过程最大似然估计的Simar算法收敛性AI 解读 ↓
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复合泊松过程最大似然估计的Simar算法收敛性AI 解读 ↓
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Simar (1976) suggested an iteration procedure for finding the maximum likelihood estimate of a compound Poisson process, but he could not show convergence. Here the more general case of maximizing a concave functional on the set of all probability measures is treated. As a generalization of Simar's procedure, an algorithm is given for solving this problem, including assumptions to ensure convergence to an optimum. Finally, it is shown that Simar's functional fulfills these assumptions.
理性疏忽—加性随机效用模型的估计
This paper develops likelihood-based estimation for parametric rational inattention--additive random utility models. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the exact maximum likelihood estimator and provide conditions under which the simulated estimator shares its asymptotic distribution. To implement estimation, we develop Newton--BA, a KKT-guided hybrid of Newton--Raphson and Blahut--Arimoto (BA). The algorithm accommodates both interior and boundary…
TMLE 与 AIPW 中样本分割选择何时重要:交叉拟合、目标化与重复
Variants of targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) and augmented inverse-probability weighting (AIPW) with machine-learning nuisance models differ in which observations train them, how bias is corrected, and whether splits are repeated. In known-truth simulations of a binary-outcome average treatment effect, eight headline estimators shared each setting's library, inner folds and truncation bound; coverage differences were judged against a prespecified…
矩阵值 CP 因子模型的识别问题与准极大似然估计
Matrix-valued time series, arising in diverse fields such as economics, neuroscience, and recommender systems, have become increasingly prominent in modern data analysis. Among various modeling frameworks, the matrix-variate CP-factor model represents an important and widely applicable class for capturing low-rank structures in matrix time series. In this paper, we provide a unified treatment for the identification problem of CP factor models using both analytic and…
高维 Ornstein–Uhlenbeck 过程漂移项的稀疏估计
We study sparsity-regularized maximum likelihood estimation for the drift parameter of high-dimensional non-stationary Ornstein--Uhlenbeck processes given repeated measurements of i.i.d. paths. In particular, we show that Lasso and Slope estimators can achieve the minimax optimal rate of convergence. We exhibit numerical experiments for sparse estimation methods and show their performance.
ARMA 过程谱密度函数的分解
Quasi-periodic oscillations are characterized by fitting Lorentzian functions to a nonparametric estimate of the power spectral density, a two-step procedure that separates estimation from modeling and does not accommodate measurement error. We develop a parametric alternative based on autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) processes observed with measurement error. We derive an exact decomposition of the ARMA spectral density into real-valued components, one for each class of…
区间值圆周时间序列:环面得分驱动方法及其在风向中的应用
Circular data recorded over time, such as wind direction, are increasingly observed in intervals rather than as single point-valued observations, yet no existing framework accommodates data that are simultaneously circular, interval-valued, and temporally dependent. Time series models for point-valued circular data, including recently proposed score-driven approaches, assume that each observation is a single angle. This paper addresses this gap by proposing a dynamic…