A Reply to "A Comment on the Consistency of Estimating the Inventory Impact of Defense Orders"
对《国防订单库存影响估计的一致性评论》的回应AI 解读 ↓
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对《国防订单库存影响估计的一致性评论》的回应
- 研究问题
- 国防订单对库存变化的估计为何在不同方程转换方法下出现分歧？遗漏滞后订单与生产、库存形成路径的假设分别起什么作用？
- 方法与思路
- 作者纠正原文库存变化方程，纳入全部滞后订单，并比较评论者提出的转换方法；随后以生产过程形状的例子讨论另一方法的前提。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称，修正方程后方法（ii）与（iii）的结果相容；作者认为方法（i）依赖不现实的生产与库存假设，并质疑其不受生产过程形状影响的主张。
- 阅读关注点
- 应对照原文与评论核对遗漏的滞后项、库存存量和变化方程的对应关系，并检查矩形生产过程及库存积累假设如何影响系数转换。
- 阅读边界
- 这是争论回应的节选，所提方程、表格与完整反例均未提供；不能据此裁定假设是否符合实际，也不能将结果相容解释为估计量一致性证明。
原文摘要
Gramlich and Galper (hereafter referred to as GG) indeed have performed a useful service by pointing out that an erroneous equation was included in my paper [3]. The corrected inventory change equation, the equation with all lagged orders included, was almost identical with the results obtained by applying GG's method (ii) to the order-inventory stock equation presented in Column (2), Table IV of my paper [3, p. 161]. The results are consistent when GG's methods (ii) and (iii) are applied on the correct equations. In any case, GG's methods (ii) and (iii) are well known and deserve no debate here. However, the same cannot be said of their method (i). GG's method (i) is based on two crucial assumptions concerning the pattern of the production process and inventories of defense products. The validity of using the method to derive the coefficients of an inventory change equation from an order-shipment relationship depends directly on these assumptions. If the assumptions describe exactly the actual patterns of the production process and of inventory build-up, then method (i) can be used for GG's purpose. Unfortunately, both of these assumptions are very unrealistic, and the use of method (i) yields misleading results. In their derivation of method (i), GG assume that the production process is rectangular. Furthermore, the authors claim that the method is valid regardless of what is assumed about the shape of the production process-a rectangular assumption serves as well as any.' This claim is faulty, as the following example demonstrates.