Temporal process regression
时间过程回归AI 解读 ↓
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要重点是函数型回归与多状态生存分析,不能仅因变量随时间变化就归入宏观时间序列或面板数据。
时间过程回归AI 解读 ↓
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We consider regression for response and covariates which are temporal processes observed over intervals. A functional generalised linear model is proposed which includes extensions of standard models in multi‐state survival analysis. Simple nonparametric estimators of time‐indexed parameters are developed using ‘working independence’ estimating equations and are shown to be uniformly consistent and to converge weakly to Gaussian processes. The procedure does not require smoothing or a Markov assumption, unlike approaches based on transition intensities. The usual definition of optimal estimating equations for parametric models is then generalised to the functional model and the optimum is identified in a class of functional generalised estimating equations. Simulations demonstrate large efficiency gains relative to working independence at times where censoring is heavy. The estimators are the basis for new tests of the covariate effects and for the estimation of models in which greater structure is imposed on the parameters, providing novel goodness‐of‐fit tests. The methodology's practical utility is illustrated in a data analysis.
We study difference-in-differences designs in which all units are initially untreated and later receive heterogeneous, strictly positive treatment doses. When quasi-untreated units receive doses close to zero, a difference-in-difference estimand using those units as the control group identifies a weighted average treatment effect per unit of treatment, under a parallel-trends assumption. We develop a nonparametric estimator and bias-corrected confidence intervals for this…
伪面板事件研究:可信应用的计量经济学基础
Event studies with panel data are widely used to estimate treatment effects. With repeated cross-sections, future treatment dates are unobserved for untreated individuals. Pseudo-panel event studies impute pre-treatment outcomes of the treated using matched untreated individuals. This paper establishes identification in such designs and characterizes bias when identification conditions fail. I show that the pseudo-panel regression is equivalent to weighted least squares with…
嵌套工具变量分析:转换者平均处理效应及可推广性
Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects from non-randomized data. A canonical example is a randomized trial with noncompliance, in which the randomized treatment assignment serves as an IV for the non-ignorable treatment received. Under a monotonicity assumption, a valid IV nonparametrically identifies the average treatment effect among a latent complier subgroup, whose generalizability is often under debate. In many studies, there exist…
平均处理效应局部化:合成控制中的投影方法
Many real-world policies and business interventions require assessing short-term effects to inform timely decisions, even though most causal inference methods focus on long-term average treatment effects. In this article, we introduce average treatment effect localization (ATEL), which captures localized, short-term policy impacts in panel data settings with a single treated unit and provides early indicators of policy impact. To accommodate both time-varying and nonlinear…
前门模型下因果效应的灵活非参数推断
Abstract Evaluating causal treatment effects in observational studies requires addressing confounding. While the back-door criterion enables identification through adjustment for observed covariates, it fails in the presence of unmeasured confounding. The front-door criterion offers an alternative by leveraging variables that fully mediate the treatment effect and are unaffected by unmeasured confounders of the treatment-outcome pair. We develop novel one-step and targeted…
未观测竞争下的第一价格拍卖非参数识别:密度断点框架
We consider nonparametric identification of independent private value first-price auction models, in which the analyst only observes winning bids. Our benchmark model assumes an exogenous number of bidders N. We show that, if the bidders observe N, the resulting discontinuities in the winning bid density can be used to identify the distribution of N. The private value distribution can be nonparametrically identified in a second step. This extends, under testable…