Network inference for SDEs with diverging dimension under small noise
小噪声下维度发散的网络随机微分方程推断AI 解读 ↓
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小噪声下维度发散的网络随机微分方程推断AI 解读 ↓
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We consider inference for network stochastic differential equations in a small-noise, high-dimensional regime, where the diffusion coefficient vanishes with $\ep\to0$ while the network size and parameter dimension may diverge. We develop a minimum-distance estimation framework based on a deterministic measurement model that may omit nuisance terms in the drift, and derive a non-asymptotic error bound decomposing the estimation error into stochastic fluctuation, nuisance discrepancy, and identifiability terms. For a linearly parametrized interaction model under repeated measurements, we obtain explicit non-asymptotic bounds on the nuisance discrepancy and the identifiability gap in terms of graph connectivity and noise level. Under suitable mixing and balance conditions, this yields consistency and convergence rates for the estimator. We further study graph recovery via adaptive Lasso. The penalized estimator is shown to inherit the rate of the preliminary estimator and to recover the true interaction graph consistently. These results provide a theoretical basis for parameter estimation and edge selection in high-dimensional network SDEs with nuisance drift components.
基于大语言模型文本测量的再犯预测、同伴效应估计与预测辅助推断
We provide a new framework for estimating peer effects when outcomes are multivariate behavioral measures derived from written text using an LLM and the network formation is endogenous. We obtain LLM embeddings and zero shot classification of more than 200,000 written exchanges among residents of low-security correctional facilities. We find that LLM embeddings improve out-of-sample recidivism prediction by up to 30% over pre-entry covariates alone using LASSO and LoRA…
利用网络结构的工具变量回归:因果节点发现与估计
Estimating causal effects from high-dimensional, structured exposures is a fundamental challenge in modern applications ranging from neuroscience and finance to environmental science. While the literature has addressed high-dimensional instrumental variable (IV) regression, and separately leveraged graph structure in penalized regression, the integration of both, especially for causal support recovery in the presence of latent confounding, remains unexplored. In this work,…
从稀缺且含噪的动态观测中进行贝叶斯超图推断
Inferring higher-order interaction structure from observations of dynamics is a central challenge in complex systems, particularly when data are scarce, noisy, or concentrated in lower-dimensional regions of state space. We develop Bayes-THIS, a Bayesian extension of Taylor-based Hypergraph Inference using SINDy (THIS), which reconstructs hypergraph structure from time-series data by identifying sparse Taylor coefficients associated with pairwise and higher-order…
存在溢出效应的合成控制方法:识别与贝叶斯推断
The synthetic control method (SCM) is widely used for causal inference with panel data, particularly when the number of treated units is small. It relies on the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA), ruling out spillover effects. However, interventions often affect not only treated but also untreated units. This study proposes a novel panel data method that extends standard SCM to account for spillovers and estimate both treatment and spillover effects. The approach…
引用网络的双向共因子分析
One compelling use of citation networks is to characterize papers by their relationships to the surrounding literature. We propose a method to characterize papers by embedding them into two distinct "co-factor" spaces: one describing how papers send citations, and the other describing how papers receive citations. This approach presents several challenges. First, older documents cannot cite newer documents, and thus it is not clear that co-factors are even identifiable. We…
遍历网络随机微分方程
We propose a novel framework for Network Stochastic Differential Equations (N-SDE), where each node in a network is governed by an SDE influenced by interactions with its neighbors. The evolution of each node is driven by the interplay of three key components: the node's intrinsic dynamics (\emph{momentum effect}), feedback from neighboring nodes (\emph{network effect}), and a \emph{stochastic volatility} term modeled by Brownian motion. Our primary objective is to estimate…